VRTX (Vertex Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:VRTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VRTX:Mexico 1VRTX:Italy 0QZU:UK VX1:Germany VX1:Germany VX1:Germany VRTX34:Brazil VRTX:Austria

Address

50 Northern Avenue, Boston, MA, USA, 02210

Website

https://www.vrtx.com

Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a global biotechnology company that discovers and develops small-molecule drugs for the treatment of serious diseases. Its key drugs are Kalydeco, Orkambi, Symdeko, and Trikafta/Kaftrio for cystic fibrosis, where Vertex therapies remain the standard of care globally. Vertex has diversified its portfolio through Casgevy, a gene-editing therapy for beta thalassemia and sickle-cell disease. Additionally, Vertex is evaluating small-molecule inhibitors targeting acute and chronic pain using nonopioid treatments, and small-molecule inhibitors of APOL1-mediated kidney diseases. Vertex is also investigating cell therapies to deliver a potential functional cure for type 1 diabetes.

Executives

David Altshuler	officer: EVP, Global Research and CSO	C/O VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED, 130 WAVERLY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Ourania Tatsis	officer: EVP, Chief Reg. & Quality Off.	C/O VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 50 NORTHERN AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02210
Wagner Charles F Jr	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O MILLIPORE CORP, BILLERICA MA 01820
Atkinson Edward Morrow Iii	officer: EVP, Chief Technical Ops. Off.	C/O 89BIO, INC., 142 SANSOME STREET, SECOND FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Kristen Ambrose	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	C/O VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED, 50 NORTHERN AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02210
Jonathan Biller	officer: EVP and Chief Legal Officer	C/O CELGENE CORPORATION, 86 MORRIS AVENUE, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Reshma Kewalramani	director, officer: CEO & President	C/O VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 50 NORTHERN AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02210
Jeffrey M Leiden	director	15 N BEACH ROAD, HOBE SOUND FL 33455
Sangeeta N. Bhatia	director	C/O VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 50 NORTHERN AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02210
Carmen Bozic	officer: EVP and CMO	C/O VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 50 NORTHERN AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02210
Bruce I Sachs	director	C/O VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 50 NORTHERN AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02210
Stuart A Arbuckle	officer: EVP, COO	VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED, 130 WAVERLY ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Amit Sachdev	officer: SVP, Public Policy,Gov Affairs	C/O VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED, 130 WAVERLY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Michel Lagarde	director	450 LEXINGTON AVE., 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Terrence C Kearney	director	IN CARE OF HOSPIRA, INC., 275 NORTH FIELD DRIVE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045