What is Arrow Financial Predictability Rank?
5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Arrow Financial Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Arrow Financial (Arrow Financial) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
250 Glen Street, Glens Falls, NY, USA, 12801
Arrow Financial Corp is a holding company. The company provides various advisory and administrative services and coordinates the general policies and operations of the banks. It provides financial products, including online and mobile banking, mortgages, commercial loans, investments, and others. The company also provides lending services including commercial and industrial lending primarily to small and mid-sized companies; mortgage lending for residential and commercial properties; and consumer installment and home equity financing. The key source of company's revenue is interest income, fees, commission earned through its subsidiaries.
Executives
| Andrew J Wise |
officer: SVP, Chief Operating Officer |
250 GLEN STREET, GLENS FALLS NY 12801 |
| David D Kaiser |
officer: SVP |
AMETHYST DRIVE, QUEENSBURY NY 12804 |
| Read Colin L |
director |
81 BLAIR ROAD, PLATTSBURGH NY 12901 |
| William L Owens |
director |
42 BLUE HERRON WAY, PLATTSBURGH NY 12901 |
| Elizabeth Miller |
director |
250 GLEN STREET, GLENS FALLS NY 12801 |
| Gary C Dake |
director |
514 LOCUST GROVE ROAD, GREENFIELD CENTER NY 12833 |
| Mark Behan |
director |
250 GLEN STREET, GLENS FALLS NY 12801 |
| Penko Krassimir Ivanov |
officer: EVP, Treasurer and CFO |
C/O ARROW FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 250 GLEN STREET, GLENS FALLS NY 12801 |
| David S. Demarco |
officer: Senior Vice President |
7 INGERSOL ROAD, SARATOGA SPRINGS NY 12866 |
| Raymond F O'conor |
officer: Senior Vice President |
7 ROLLING GREEN DRIVE, WILTON NY 12831 |
| Gregory J Champion |
director |
250 GLEN STREET, GLENS FALLS NY 12801 |
| Thomas L Hoy |
director |
ARROW FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 250 GLEN STREET, GLENS FALLS NY 12801 |
| Reisman Richard J Dmd |
director |
9 ST. ANDREWS DRIVE, QUEENSBURY NY 12804 |
| Edward J Campanella |
officer: SVP, Treasurer & CFO |
42 MAXWELL ROAD, LATHAM NY 12110 |
| Michael B Clarke |
director |
58 CHRISTIANA COURT, LAKE GEORGE NY 12845 |
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