Celsius Holdings (Celsius Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Celsius Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Celsius Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Celsius Holdings (Celsius Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Non-Alcoholic » Celsius Holdings Inc (NAS:CELH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2424 North Federal Highway, Suite 208, Boca Raton, FL, USA, 33431

Website

https://www.celsius.com

Celsius Holdings plays in the energy drink subsegment of the global nonalcoholic beverage market, with 94% of revenue concentrated in North America. Celsius' products contain natural ingredients and a metabolism-enhancing formulation, appealing to fitness and active lifestyle enthusiasts. The firm's portfolio includes its namesake Celsius Originals beverages (including those that are naturally caffeinated with stevia) and Celsius On-the-Go powder packets. Celsius focuses its time on branding and innovation, while it utilizes third parties for the manufacturing, packaging, and distribution of its products. In 2022, Celsius forged a 20-year distribution agreement with PepsiCo, which holds an 8.5% stake in the business.

Executives

Deborah Desantis	10 percent owner	6394 WILD ORCHID TRAIL, LAKE WORTH FL 32449
Dean Desantis	10 percent owner	815 IDLEWYLD DRIVE, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
William H. Milmoe	director	3299 N.W. 2ND AVENUE, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Toby David	officer: Executive Vice President	2424 N. FEDERAL HWY. SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
John Fieldly	director, officer: CEO	2424 NORTH FEDERAL HIGHWAY, SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Paul H. Storey	officer: Sr. Vice President, Operations	2424 N. FEDERAL HWY. SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Tony Guilfoyle	officer: Executive VP, Domestic sales	2424 N. FEDERAL HWY. SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Jarrod Langhans	officer: CFO	2424 N FEDERAL HIGHWAY, SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Hal Kravitz	director	2424 NORTH FEDERAL HIGHWAY, SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Richard Stephen Mattessich	officer: Chief Legal Officer	2424 N FEDERAL HIGHWAY, SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Nicholas Castaldo	director	2424 NORTH FEDERAL HIGHWAY, SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Chau Hoi Shuen Solina Holly	10 percent owner	SUITES PT. 2909 & 2910, HARBOUR CENTRE, 25 HARBOUR ROAD, WANCHAI K3 999077
Caroline S Levy	director	2424 N FEDERAL HIGHWAY, SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Alexandre Ruberti	director	2424 NORTH FEDERAL HIGHWAY, SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Joyce Russell	director	2424 N FEDERAL HIGHWAY, SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431