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CELH (Celsius Holdings) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.09% (As of Mar. 14, 2025)


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What is Celsius Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Celsius Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.09%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Celsius Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic subindustry, Celsius Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Celsius Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic Industry

For the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Celsius Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Celsius Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Celsius Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.02

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.09%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Celsius Holdings  (NAS:CELH) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Celsius Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Celsius Holdings Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2424 North Federal Highway, Suite 208, Boca Raton, FL, USA, 33431
Celsius Holdings plays in the energy drink subsegment of the global nonalcoholic beverage market, with 96% of revenue concentrated in North America. Celsius' products contain natural ingredients and a metabolism-enhancing formulation, appealing to fitness and active lifestyle enthusiasts. The firm's portfolio includes its namesake Celsius Originals beverages, Celsius Essentials line (containing aminos), and Celsius On-the-Go powder packets. Celsius dedicates its efforts to branding and innovation, while it utilizes third parties for the manufacturing, packaging, and distribution of its products. In 2022, Celsius forged a 20-year distribution agreement with PepsiCo, which holds an 8.5% stake in the business.
Executives
William H. Milmoe director 3299 N.W. 2ND AVENUE, BOCA RATON FL 33431
John Fieldly director, officer: CEO 2424 NORTH FEDERAL HIGHWAY, SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Dean Desantis 10 percent owner 815 IDLEWYLD DRIVE, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Hal Kravitz director 2424 NORTH FEDERAL HIGHWAY, SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Deborah Desantis 10 percent owner 6394 WILD ORCHID TRAIL, LAKE WORTH FL 32449
Paul H. Storey officer: Sr. Vice President, Operations 2424 N. FEDERAL HWY. SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Jarrod Langhans officer: CFO 2424 N FEDERAL HIGHWAY, SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Caroline S Levy director 2424 N FEDERAL HIGHWAY, SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Nicholas Castaldo director 2424 NORTH FEDERAL HIGHWAY, SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Tony Guilfoyle officer: Executive VP, Domestic sales 2424 N. FEDERAL HWY. SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Toby David officer: Executive Vice President 2424 N. FEDERAL HWY. SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Richard Stephen Mattessich officer: Chief Legal Officer 2424 N FEDERAL HIGHWAY, SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Chau Hoi Shuen Solina Holly 10 percent owner SUITES PT. 2909 & 2910, HARBOUR CENTRE, 25 HARBOUR ROAD, WANCHAI K3 999077
Alexandre Ruberti director 2424 NORTH FEDERAL HIGHWAY, SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Joyce Russell director 2424 N FEDERAL HIGHWAY, SUITE 208, BOCA RATON FL 33431

Celsius Holdings Headlines

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