Fox (FOX) Predictability Rank

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What is Fox Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fox Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Fox Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Fox (FOX) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Fox Corp (NAS:FOX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FOXA:USA FOX1:Mexico FO5:Germany FO5:Germany

Address

1211 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY, USA, 10036

Website

https://www.foxcorporation.com

Fox represents the assets not sold to Disney by predecessor firm, Twenty First Century Fox, in 2019. The remaining assets include Fox News, the FOX broadcast network, FS1 and FS2, Fox Business, Big Ten Network, 28 owned and operated local television stations of which 17 are affiliated with the Fox Network, Tubi, and the Fox Studios lot. Since the Disney sale, Fox has acquired other related and unrelated assets including Credible Labs, a consumer fintech firm. The Murdoch family continues to control the successor firm, which represents a large-scale bet on the value of live sports and news in the U.S. market.

Executives

Keith Rupert Murdoch	director, officer: Chairman	C/O FOX CORPORATION, 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Viet D Dinh	officer: Chief Legal and Policy Officer	GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY LAW CENTER, 600 NEW JERSEY AVENUE NW, WASHINGTON DC 20001
Lachlan K Murdoch	director, officer: Executive Chairman, CEO	C/O NEWS AMERICA INCORPORATED, 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
John Nallen	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O NEWS AMERICA INCORPORATED, 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Roland A Hernandez	director	300 NORTH SAN RAFAEL AVE, PASADENA CA 91105
Jacques A Nasser	director
Chase Carey	director	C/O NEWS AMERICA INCORPORATED, 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Steven Tomsic	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Paul D Ryan	director	1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Anne Dias	director	1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Cruden Financial Services Llc	10 percent owner	C/O MCDONALD CARANO WILSON LLP, 100 LIBERTY STREET, RENO NV 89501
Murdoch Family Trust	10 percent owner	C/O MCDONALD CARANO WILSON LLP, 100 LIBERTY STREET, RENO NV 89501
Twenty-first Century Fox, Inc.	10 percent owner	1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036