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Fortive (NYSE:FTV) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Fortive Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Fortive Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Fortive's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Fortive (NYSE:FTV) Business Description

Fortive logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
6920 Seaway Boulevard, Everett, WA, USA, 98203
Fortive is a diversified industrial technology firm with a broad portfolio of mission-critical products and services that include field solutions, product realization, health, and sensing technologies. The company serves a wide range of end markets, including manufacturing, utilities, medical, and electronics. Fortive generated roughly $5.3 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in adjusted operating income in 2021.
Executives
Eric Branderiz director 915 DEGUIGNE DRIVE, PO BOX 3453, SUNNYVALE CA 94088-3453
Tamara S. Newcombe officer: President & CEO of PT 6920 SEAWAY BLVD., EVERETT WA 98203
Wright Iii Lassiter director 500 PLAZA DRIVE, C/O QUEST DIAGNOSTICS, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Olumide Soroye officer: President & CEO of IOS 6920 SEAWAY BLVD., EVERETT WA 98203
Edward Read Simmons officer: SVP - Strategy 6920 SEAWAY BLVD, EVERETT WA 98203
Rejji P Hayes director ONE ENERGY PLAZA, JACKSON MI 49201
Sharmistha Dubey director 8750 NORTH CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75231
Christopher M. Mulhall officer: VP - Chief Accounting Officer C/O FORTIVE CORPORATION, 6920 SEAWAY BLVD, EVERETT WA 98203
Jeannine P Sargent director C/O VEECO INSTRUMENTS INC., 100 SUNNYSIDE BOULEVARD SUITE B, WOODBURY NY 11797
Barbara B. Hulit officer: Senior Vice President C/O FORTIVE CORPORATION, 6920 SEAWAY BLVD, EVERETT WA 98203
Emily A. Weaver officer: VP-Chief Accounting Officer C/O FORTIVE CORPORATION, 6920 SEAWAY BOULEVARD, EVERETT WA 98203
Charles E Mclaughlin officer: SVP - Chief Financial Officer C/O FORTIVE CORPORATION, 6920 SEAWAY BOULEVARD, EVERETT WA 98203
Patrick K Murphy officer: Senior Vice President C/O FORTIVE CORPORATION, 6920 SEAWAY BOULEVARD, EVERETT WA 98203
Jonathan L Schwarz officer: VP-Corporate Development C/O FORTIVE CORPORATION, 6920 SEAWAY BOULEVARD, EVERETT WA 98203
William W Pringle officer: Senior Vice President C/O FORTIVE CORPORATION, 6920 SEAWAY BOULEVARD, EVERETT WA 98203

Fortive (NYSE:FTV) Headlines

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