GNCAQ (Genocea Biosciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Genocea Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Genocea Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Genocea Biosciences Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Genocea Biosciences Inc (OTCPK:GNCAQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

100 Acorn Park Drive, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02140

Website

https://www.genocea.com

Genocea Biosciences Inc is a USA-based biopharmaceutical company discovering and developing novel cancer immunotherapies using its proprietary ATLAS platform. The ATLAS platform can profile each patient's CD4+ and CD8+ T cell immune responses to every potential target or antigen identified by next-generation sequencing of that patient's tumor. ATLAS zeroes in on both antigens that activate anti-tumor T cell responses and inhibitory antigens, or Inhibigens , that drive pro-tumor immune responses.

Executives

Jacquelyn L Sumer	officer: CHIEF LEGAL & COMPLIANCE OFF	C/O GENOCEA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 100 ACORN PARK DRIVE 5TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
William D Clark	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O GENOCEA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 100 ACORN PARK DRIVE 5TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
George Siber	director	2000 BROADWAY, PENTHOUSE 2B, NEW YORK NY 10023
Diantha Duvall	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O GENOCEA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 100 ACORN PARK DRIVE 5TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Scott D Sandell	10 percent owner
Stapleton Raymond D Jr	officer: EVP PHARM SCI & MFG	C/O GENOCEA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 100 ACORN PARK DRIVE 5TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Jessica Baker Flechtner	officer: VP of Research	C/O GENOCEA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 100 ACORN PARK DRIVE, 5TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Carmen Chang	10 percent owner	2855 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
New Enterprise Associates 16, L.p.	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Paul Edward Walker	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Mohamad Makhzoumi	10 percent owner	2855 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Ali Behbahani	director	5425 WISCONSIN AVE, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Forest Baskett	10 percent owner
Peter W. Sonsini	10 percent owner	2855 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Florence Anthony A. Jr.	10 percent owner	5425 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 800, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815