What is Jeffersonville Bancorp Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Jeffersonville Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Jeffersonville Bancorp (Jeffersonville Bancorp) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
4864 State Route 52, P.O. Box 398, Jeffersonville, NY, USA, 12748
Jeffersonville Bancorp is a bank holding company whose principal activity is the ownership of all outstanding shares of the Bank's stock. The Bank is a commercial bank providing community banking services to individuals, small businesses, and local municipal governments in Sullivan County, New York. The services and products include personal checking, business checking, debit cards, credit cards, mortgages, personal loans, business loans, personal and business savings, mobile banking, and business services among others.
Executives
| Raymond L Walter |
director |
P.O. BOX 398, JEFFERSONVILLE NY 12748 |
| John A Russell |
officer: Senior Vice President/CFO |
26 COLEMAN STREET, PORT JERVIS NY 12771 |
| Wayne V Zanetti |
officer: Vice President |
49 HASTINGS DRIVE, GRAHAMSVILLE NY 12740 |
| Edward T Sykes |
director |
P.O. BOX 454, JEFFERSONVILLE NY 12748 |
| James F Roche |
director |
5594 RT. 17B, CALLICOON NY 12723 |
| John K Gempler |
director |
P.O. BOX 285, JEFFERSONVILLE NY 12748 |
| Kinne George W Jr |
officer: SVP/Senior Loan Officer |
PO BOX 312, 9 MEADOW BROOK LANE, ROSCOE NY 12776-0312 |
| Donald L Knack |
director |
PO BOX 446, JEFFERSONVILLE NY 12748 |
| Earle A Wilde |
director |
P.O. BOX 386, JEFFERSONVILLE NY 12748 |
| Douglas A Heinle |
director |
PO BOX 25, COCHECTON CENTER NY 12727 |
| Kenneth C Klein |
director |
14 ST JOSEPHS ROAD, FORESTBURGH NY 12777 |
| Tatiana C Hahn |
officer: Senior Vice President/CLO |
97 SANDER ROAD, JEFFERSONVILLE NY 12748 |
| Solomon Katzoff |
director |
PO BOX 15, LAKE HUNTINGTON NY 12752 |
| Gilbert E Weiss |
other: Director Emeritus |
P.O. BOX 398, JEFFERSONVILLE NY 12748 |
| Gibson E Mckean |
director |
P.O. BOX 54, HIGHLAND LAKE NY 12743 |
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