Liberty Latin America (Liberty Latin America) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Liberty Latin America Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Liberty Latin America (Liberty Latin America) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » Liberty Latin America Ltd (NAS:LILA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LILAB:USA LILAK:USA 1LLC:Germany 1LL:Germany

Address

2 Church Street, Hamilton, BMU, HM 11

Website

https://www.lla.com

Liberty Latin America Ltd is a telecommunications company. It is a provider of video, broadband internet, fixed-line telephony and mobile services to residential and business customers. The company's reportable segments include C&W Caribbean and Networks, C&W Panama, VTR, Liberty Puerto Rico and Costa Rica.

Executives

John M Winter	officer: SVP, CLO AND SECRETARY	1550 WEWATTA STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Eric Louis Zinterhofer	director	C/O SEARCHLIGHT CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, LP, 745 FIFTH AVENUE, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10151
Balan Nair	director, officer: President and CEO	901 EXPLORER BOULEVARD, HUNTSVILLE AL 35806
John C Malone	10 percent owner	12300 LIBERTY BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Paul A Gould	director	711 FIFTH AVENUE, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Christopher J Noyes	officer: SVP, CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	1550 WEWATTA STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Brian D Zook	officer: MD, CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	1550 WEWATTA STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Daniel E. Sanchez	director	C/O DISCOVERY, INC., 8403 COLESVILLE ROAD, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Vivek Khemka	officer: SVP, CT&PO	C/O DISH NETWORK CORPORATION, 9601 S MERIDIAN BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Michael T Fries	director, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O LIBERTY GLOBAL, INC., 1550 WEWATTA STREET STE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Bracken Charles H R	director	161 HAMMERSMITH ROAD, LONDON ENGLAND X0 W6 8BS
Betzalel Kenigsztein	officer: SVP, CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER	1550 WEWATTA STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Miranda Curtis	director	C/O LIBERTY GLOBAL, INC., 1550 WEWATTA STREET STE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Brendan J Paddick	director	1550 WEWATTA STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202
Angoitia Alfonso De	director	1550 WEWATTA STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202