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MercadoLibre (NAS:MELI) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MercadoLibre Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

MercadoLibre Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of MercadoLibre's Predictability Rank provided by Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

MercadoLibre (NAS:MELI) Business Description

MercadoLibre logo
WTC Free Zone, Dr. Luis Bonavita 1294, Of. 1733, Tower II, Montevideo, URY, 11300
MercadoLibre runs the largest e-commerce marketplace in Latin America, connecting a network of more than 140 million active users and 1 million active sellers as of the end of 2021 across an 18-country footprint. The company also operates a host of complementary businesses, with shipping solutions (Mercado Envios), a payment and financing operation (Mercado Pago), advertisements (Mercado Clics), classifieds, and a turnkey e-commerce solution (Mercado Shops) rounding out its arsenal. MercadoLibre generates revenue from final value fees, advertising royalties, payment processing, insertion fees, subscription fees, and interest income from consumer and small-business lending.
Petroni Merhy Andrea Mayumi director HOUSE B, 32 STANLEY VILLAGE ROAD, STANLEY K3 000000
De La Serna Juan Martin officer: Executive VP Corporate Affairs AV. PTE. PERON 2375, LOTE MN04, PILAR, BUENOS AIRES C1 1629
Richard A Sanders director 80 PALL MALL, LONDON X0 SW1Y 5ES
Ariel Szarfsztejn officer: Executive VP - Commerce POSTA 4789, 6TH FLOOR, BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430CRG
Henrique Vasoncelos Dubugras director 1000 LAUREL WAY, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210
Roberto Balls Sallouti director ARIAS 3751, 7TH FLOOR, BUENOS AIRES C1 C1 C1430CRG
Emiliano Calemzuk director C/O MERCADOLIBRE, INC., TRONADOR 4890, 8TH FLOOR, BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN
Alejandro Nicolas Aguzin director ARIAS 3751, 7TH FLOOR, BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN
Ebay Inc 10 percent owner 2025 HAMILTON AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95125
Javier Olivan director 62 RIDGE VIEW DRIVE, ATHERTON X1 94027
Susan Segal director
Pedro Arnt officer: Executive VP and CFO ARIAS 3751, 7TH FLOOR, BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430CRG
Daniel Rabinovich officer: VP-Chief Technology Officer ARIAS 3751, 7TH FLOOR, BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430CRG
Marcelo Melamud officer: V. P. Chief Accounting Officer TRONADOR 4890, 8TH FLOOR, BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN

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