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Boston Omaha Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Competitive Comparison

For the Advertising Agencies subindustry, Boston Omaha's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Boston Omaha Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Media - Diversified industry and Communication Services sector, Boston Omaha's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Boston Omaha's Predictability Rank falls into.

Boston Omaha Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Boston Omaha Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Boston Omaha's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Boston Omaha Business Description

Boston Omaha logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
1601 Dodge Street, Suite 3300, Omaha, NE, USA, 68102
Boston Omaha Corp is a US-based company which invests in real estate. Its operations include its ownership of multiple billboards in Florida, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Alabama and equity method investments in several real estate companies. The company operates three separate lines of business, outdoor billboard advertising, surety insurance and related brokerage activities, and broadband services. It also engages in investments in real estate management and related activities. The company generates the majority of the revenue from billboard rentals.
Weisenburger Joshua Paul officer: Chief Financial Officer 1411 HARNEY ST. SUITE 200 OMAHA NE 68102
Briner Bradford B director 705 GIMGHOUL ROAD CHAPEL HILL NC 27514
Keating Brendan Joseph director 8918 SPANISH RIDGE AVENUE, SUITE 100 LAS VEGAS NV 89148
Boulderado Partners, Llc 10 percent owner 292 NEWBURY STREET SUITE 333 BOSTON MA 02115
Boulderado Group, Llc other: Manager is Director and Co-CEO 304 NEWBURY STREET SUITE 333 BOSTON MA 02115
Boulderado Capital, Llc 10 percent owner 292 NEWBURY STREET BOSTON MA 02115
Rozek Alexander Buffett director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer 292 NEWBURY ST #333 BOSTON MA 02115
Magnolia Group, Llc 10 percent owner 1411 HARNEY STREET SUITE 200 OMAHA NE 68102
Magnolia Boc Ii, Lp 10 percent owner 1411 HARNEY ST. SUITE 200 OMAHA NE 68102
Magnolia Boc I, Lp 10 percent owner 1411 HARNEY ST. SUITE 200 OMAHA NE 68102
Peterson Adam K director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer 1411 HARNEY STREET, SUITE 200 OMAHA NE 68102
Magnolia Capital Fund, Lp 10 percent owner 1411 HARNEY ST., SUITE 200 OMAHA NE 68102
Lafoy William Scott officer: CEO of Link Media Holdings,LLC C/O LINK MEDIA OUTDOOR 200 MANSELL CT. EAST, BLDG 200 STE. 360 ROSWELL GA 30076
Royal Jeffrey C director 5420 NICHOLAS STREET OMAHA NE 68132

Boston Omaha Headlines

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