>
Switch to:

DocuSign Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2018. Start your Free Trial
Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


DocuSign Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

DocuSign Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of DocuSign's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


DocuSign Business Description

DocuSign logo
Industry
Technology » Software NAICS : 511210 SIC : 7379
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
221 Main Street, Suite 1550, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94105
DocuSign offers the Agreement Cloud, a broad cloud-based software suite that enables users to automate the agreement process and provide legally binding e-signatures from nearly any device. The company was founded in 2003 and completed its IPO in May 2018.
Executives
Gaylor Cynthia officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O PIVOTAL SOFTWARE, INC. 875 HOWARD STREET, FIFTH FLOOR SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Olrich Scott V. officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O DOCUSIGN, INC. 221 MAIN ST., SUITE 1000 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Salem Enrique T director SYMANTEC CORPORATION 20330 STEVENS CREEK BLVD. CUPERTINO CA 95014
Solvik Peter director 2105 SOUTH BASCOM AVE. #370 CAMPBELL CA 95008
Alhadeff Loren officer: Chief Revenue Officer C/O DOCUSIGN, INC. SUITE 1000 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Wilderotter Mary Agnes director 115 ALPINE TERRACE OAKLAND CA 94618
Springer Daniel D. director, officer: President and CEO C/O DOCUSIGN, INC. 221 MAIN ST., SUITE 1000 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Phi Tram T officer: SVP, General Counsel C/O IMPERVA, INC. 3400 BRIDGE PARKWAY REDWOOD SHORES CA 94065
Suh Inhi Cho director C/O DOCUSIGN, INC. 221 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1000 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Singh Sudhir Steven director 6222 185TH AVE REDMOND WA 98052
Irving Blake director 14455 N. HAYDEN RD. SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
Briggs Teresa director 2225 LAWSON LANE SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Beer James A director MCKESSON CORPORATION ONE POST STREET SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Wolberg Kirsten O. officer: Chief Technology & Ops Officer 900 NORTH MCCARTHY BLVD MILPITAS CA 95035
Sheridan Michael J officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O DOCUSIGN, INC. 221 MAIN ST., SUITE 1000 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105

DocuSign Headlines

From GuruFocus

Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)