DOCU (Docusign) Predictability Rank

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What is Docusign Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Docusign Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Docusign Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Docusign Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Docusign Inc (NAS:DOCU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DOCU:Mexico 0XNH:UK DS3:Germany D1OC34:Brazil

Address

221 Main Street, Suite 1550, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94105

Website

https://www.docusign.com

Docusign offers Agreement Cloud, a broad cloud-based software suite that enables users to automate the agreement process and provide legally binding e-signatures from nearly any device. The company was founded in 2003 and completed its initial public offering in 2018.

Executives

Blake Jeffrey Grayson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2212 EVERETT AVENUE E, SEATTLE WA 98102
James P Shaughnessy	officer: Chief Legal Officer	4460 HACIENDA DR., PLEASANTON CA 94588
Allan C. Thygesen	director, officer: President and CEO	20 DAVIS DRIVE, BELMONT CA 94002
Robert Chatwani	officer: President General Mgr, Growth	221 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1550, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Teresa Briggs	director	2225 LAWSON LANE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Peter Solvik	director	2105 SOUTH BASCOM AVE. #370, CAMPBELL CA 95008
Enrique T Salem	director	SYMANTEC CORPORATION, 20330 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., CUPERTINO CA 95014
Daniel D. Springer	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O DOCUSIGN, INC., 221 MAIN ST., SUITE 1000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Stephen Shute	officer: President, Field Operations	221 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1550, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Anna Marrs	director	200 VESEY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10285
Inhi Cho Suh	officer: President, Product Engineering	C/O DOCUSIGN, INC., 221 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Scott V. Olrich	officer: Chief Strategy and Marketing	C/O DOCUSIGN, INC., 221 MAIN ST., SUITE 1000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Cynthia Gaylor	director	C/O PIVOTAL SOFTWARE, INC., 875 HOWARD STREET, FIFTH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Tram T Phi	officer: SVP, General Counsel	C/O DOCUSIGN, INC., 221 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1550, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Loren Alhadeff	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O DOCUSIGN, INC., SUITE 1000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105