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Heritage Commerce Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Heritage Commerce's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Heritage Commerce Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Heritage Commerce's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Heritage Commerce's Predictability Rank falls into.



Heritage Commerce Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Heritage Commerce Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Heritage Commerce's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Heritage Commerce Business Description

Heritage Commerce logo
Industry
Financial Services » Banks NAICS : 522110 SIC : 6022
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
224 Airport Parkway, San Jose, CA, USA, 95110
Heritage Commerce Corporation operates as a bank holding company. The company, through its subsidiary, offers commercial banking services to small and medium-sized businesses and their owners, managers, and employees. It operates through two segments, namely Banking and Factoring. The bank generates a majority of its revenue from the Banking segment.
Executives
Cabral Bruce H director 150 ALMADEN BOULEVARD SAN JOSE CA 95113
Benito Michael Eugene officer: EVP 150 ALMADNE BLVD. SAN JOSE CA 95113
Moles Robert director HERITAGE COMMERCE CORP 150 ALMADEN BLVD. SAN JOSE CA 95113
Webster Ranson W director C/O HERITAGE BANK OF COMMERCE 150 ALMADEN BLVD SAN JOSE CA 95113
Bisceglia Frank G director C/O HERITAGE COMMERCE CORP 150 ALMADEN BLVD SAN JOSE CA 95113
Jones Robertson Clay Jr officer: EVP 150 ALMADEN BOULEVARD SAN JOSE CA 95113
Wilton Keith director, officer: President and CEO 150 ALMADEN BLVD. SAN JOSE CA 95113
Kaczmarek Walter Theodore director HERITAGE COMMERCE CORP 150 ALMADEN BLVD. SAN JOSE CA 95113
Conner Jack W director HERITAGE COMMERCE CORP 150 ALMADEN BLVD. SAN JOSE CA 95113
Biagini Komas Julianne M director 150 ALMADEN BOULEVARD SAN JOSE CA 95113
Mcgovern Lawrence D officer: EVP/CFO C/O HERITAGE COMMERCE CORP 150 ALMADEN BLVD SAN JOSE CA 95113
Dinapoli Jason Philip director 1875 CENTURY PARK EAST SUITE 1400 LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Roden Laura director 150 ALMADEN BLVD. SAN JOSE CA 95113
Butsch Margo G. officer: EVP/Chief Credit Officer 150 ALMADEN BLVD SAN JOSE CA 95113
Sutton Marina Park director 150 ALMADEN BOULEVARD SAN JOSE CA 95113

Heritage Commerce Headlines

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