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ICF International Predictability Rank


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4.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Consulting Services subindustry, ICF International's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

ICF International Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, ICF International's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where ICF International's Predictability Rank falls into.



ICF International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

ICF International Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of ICF International's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


ICF International Business Description

ICF International logo
Industry
Industrials » Business Services NAICS : 541611 SIC : 8742
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
9300 Lee Highway, Fairfax, VA, USA, 22031
ICF International Inc provides professional services and technology-based solutions to government and commercial clients, including management, marketing, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services. Its services primarily support clients that operate in four key markets that include Energy, Environment, and Infrastructure, Health, Education, and Social Programs, Safety and Security and Consumer and Financial. The Company's major clients are United States federal government departments and agencies.
Executives
Crouther Marilyn C director 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031
Terreri Donald J officer: VP & Principal Acct. Officer 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031
Kesavan Sudhakar director, officer: Executive Chairman ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC. 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031
Van Handel Michael J director 5301 NORTH IRONWOOD ROAD MILWAUKEE WI 53217
Grise Cheryl W director NORTHEAST UTILITIES 107 SELDEN STREET BERLIN CT 06037
Datar Srikant M. director ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC. 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031
Schulte Peter M director 900 THIRD AVENUE 33RD FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10022-4775
Mehl Randall director 8620 N DEAN CIR RIVER HILLS WI 53217
Wasson John director, officer: CEO & President ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC. 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031
Golinvaux Theresa D officer: SVP & Principal Acct. Officer 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 20131
Morgan James C M officer: Chief of Business Operations 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031
Ostria Sergio J officer: Executive Vice President 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031
Welsh Bettina Garcia officer: Chief Financial Officer 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031
Taylor Richard Dewayne officer: SVP & Principal Acct. Officer 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031
Glover Ellen officer: Executive Vice President ICF INTERNATIONAL, INC. 9300 LEE HIGHWAY FAIRFAX VA 22031

ICF International Headlines

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