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Liberty Latin America Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Telecom Services subindustry, Liberty Latin America's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Liberty Latin America Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Telecommunication Services industry and Communication Services sector, Liberty Latin America's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Liberty Latin America's Predictability Rank falls into.



Liberty Latin America Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Liberty Latin America Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Liberty Latin America's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Liberty Latin America Business Description

Liberty Latin America logo
Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2 Church Street, Hamilton, BMU, HM 11
Liberty Latin America Ltd is a telecommunications company. It is a provider of video, broadband internet, fixed-line telephony and mobile services to residential and business customers. The company's reportable segments include C&W Caribbean and Networks, C&W Panama, VTR/Cableticaand Liberty Puerto Rico.
Executives
Zinterhofer Eric Louis director C/O SEARCHLIGHT CAPITAL PARTNERS GP, LP 745 FIFTH AVENUE, 27TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10151
Nair Balan director, officer: President and CEO 901 EXPLORER BOULEVARD HUNTSVILLE AL 35806
Sanchez Daniel E. director C/O DISCOVERY, INC. 8403 COLESVILLE ROAD SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Khemka Vivek officer: SVP, CT&PO C/O DISH NETWORK CORPORATION 9601 S MERIDIAN BLVD ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Fries Michael T director, officer: Executive Chairman C/O LIBERTY GLOBAL, INC. 12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Noyes Christopher J officer: SVP, CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER 1550 WEWATTA STREET SUITE 1000 DENVER CO 80202
Malone John C 10 percent owner 12300 LIBERTY BLVD ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Gould Paul A director 711 FIFTH AVENUE 9TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10022
Bracken Charles H R director C/O UPC SERVICES LTD 12 STANHOPE GATE LONDON ENGLAND X0 W1Y 5LB
Kenigsztein Betzalel officer: SVP, CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER 1550 WEWATTA STREET SUITE 1000 DENVER CO 80202
Curtis Miranda director C/O LIBERTY GLOBAL, INC. 12300 LIBERTY BOULEVARD ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Winter John M officer: SVP, CLO AND SECRETARY 1550 WEWATTA STREET SUITE 1000 DENVER CO 80202
Paddick Brendan J director 1550 WEWATTA STREET SUITE 1000 DENVER CO 80202
De Angoitia Alfonso director 1550 WEWATTA STREET SUITE 1000 DENVER CO 80202
Zook Brian D officer: MD, CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER 1550 WEWATTA STREET SUITE 1000 DENVER CO 80202

Liberty Latin America Headlines

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