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MercadoLibre Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Internet Retail subindustry, MercadoLibre's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

MercadoLibre Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, MercadoLibre's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where MercadoLibre's Predictability Rank falls into.



MercadoLibre Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

MercadoLibre Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of MercadoLibre's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


MercadoLibre Business Description

MercadoLibre logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical NAICS : 454110 SIC : 5961
Address
Pasaje Posta 4789, 6th Floor, Buenos Aires, ARG, C1430EKG
Founded in 1999, MercadoLibre's commerce segment (representing 64% of net revenue in 2020) includes online marketplaces in more than a dozen Latin American countries, display and paid search advertising capabilities (MercadoClics), online store management services (MercadoShops), and third-party logistics solutions (MercadoEnvios). Its fintech segment includes an online/offline payment-processing platform (MercadoPago), mobile wallet platform, credit solutions for buyers/sellers, and asset management offerings (Mercado Fondo). The company derives more than 95% of its revenue from Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico.
Executives
Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas director ARIAS 3751, 7TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN
Calemzuk Emiliano director C/O MERCADOLIBRE, INC. TRONADOR 4890, 8TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN
Segal Susan director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: SEGAL SUSAN a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Vazquez Mario director TRONADOR 4890, 8TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 430DNN
Malka Meyer director C/O MERCADOLIBRE, INC. ARIAS 3751, 7TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1C1430CRG
Sallouti Roberto Balls director ARIAS 3751, 7TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1 C1430CRG
Galperin Marcos director, officer: President and CEO C/O MERCADOLIBRE, INC. TRONADOR 4890, 8TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN
Tolda Stelleo officer: Executive VP and COO C/O MERCADOLIBRE, INC. TRONADOR 4890, 8TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN
Ebay Inc 10 percent owner 2025 HAMILTON AVENUE SAN JOSE CA 95125
Rabinovich Daniel officer: EVP-Chief Technology Officer ARIAS 3751, 7TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430CRG
Melamud Marcelo officer: VP - Chief Accounting Officer TRONADOR 4890, 8TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN
Spence A Michael director 121 INNOVATION DR STE 200 IRVINE CA 92612
Arnt Pedro officer: Executive VP and CFO ARIAS 3751, 7TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430CRG
Osvaldo Gimenez officer: Executive VP - Payments TRONADOR 4890, 8TH FLOOR BUENOS AIRES C1 C1430DNN
Olivan Javier director 62 RIDGE VIEW DRIVE ATHERTON X1 94027

MercadoLibre Headlines

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