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Assurant Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Insurance - Specialty subindustry, Assurant's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Assurant Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, Assurant's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Assurant's Predictability Rank falls into.



Assurant Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Assurant Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Assurant's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Assurant Business Description

Assurant logo
Industry
Financial Services » Insurance NAICS : 524298 SIC : 6411
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
55 Broadway, Suite 2901, New York, NY, USA, 10006
Assurant Inc offers a range of property-casualty, health, employee benefit, and warranty insurance to a client base made up of individuals and institutions. The company has four reportable segments namely Global Housing, Global Lifestyle, Global Preneed and Total Corporate and Other. Global Housing segment provides lender-placed homeowners, manufactured housing, flood insurance, and other related products, Global Lifestyle provides mobile device protection and related services, Global Preneed is engaged in providing pre-funded funeral insurance and annuity products whereas Total Corporate and others includes activities related to holding company primarily related to the company's frozen benefit plans. It generates a majority of its revenue from the Global Lifestyle Segment.
Executives
Dirienzo Dimitry officer: SVP, CAO, Controller C/O ASSURANT, INC. 28 LIBERTY ST. 41 F. NEW YORK NY 10005
Mergelmeyer Gene officer: EVP, COO ASSURANT, INC. 28 LIBERTY ST. 41 FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10005
Dziadzio Richard S officer: EVP and CFO C/O ALLIANCE CAPITAL 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS NEW YORK NY 10105
Luthi Francesca officer: EVP, CAO 1180 NORTH TOWN CENTER DRIVE SUITE 100 LAS VEGAS NV 89144
Rosenblum Jay officer: EVP and CLO C/O ASSURANT, INC. 28 LIBERTY ST, 41ST FL. NEW YORK NY 10005
Carter J Braxton Ii director C/O T-MOBILE US, INC. 12920 SE 38TH STREET BELLEVUE WA 98006
Jackson Lawrence V director C/O ASSURANT, INC., 28 LIBERTY ST., 41 F NEW YORK NY 10005
Redzic Ognjen director C/O ASSURANT, INC. 28 LIBERTY STREET, 41ST FL. NEW YORK NY 10005
Stein Robert W director ASSURANT, INC. ONE CHASE MANHATTAN PLAZA, 41 FL. NEW YORK NY 10005
Cento Juan director ASSURANT, INC. ONE CHASE MANHATTAN PLAZA, 41 FL. NEW YORK NY 10005
Alves Paget Leonard director SPRINT NEXTEL 6200 SPRINT PARKWAY KSOPHF0410 - 4A403 OVERLAND PARK KS 66251
Perry Debra J director 515 RIDGEWOOD AVENUE GLEN RIDGE NJ 07028
Rosen Elaine director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: ROSEN ELAINE a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Edelman Harriet director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: EDELMAN HARRIET a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Reilly Paul J director C/O ASSURANT, INC. 28 LIBERTY STREET, 41ST FL. NEW YORK NY 10005

Assurant Headlines

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