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OncoCyte (NAS:OCX) Predictability Rank

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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

OncoCyte Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

OncoCyte Predictability Rank Related Terms

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OncoCyte (NAS:OCX) Business Description

OncoCyte logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
15 Cushing, Irvine, CA, USA, 92618
OncoCyte Corp focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel, non-invasive, liquid biopsy diagnostics for the early detection of cancer. The company develops diagnostic tests based on liquid biopsies using blood or urine samples for detecting lung, bladder, and breast cancers. In addition, it also develops screening diagnostics as potential replacements for screening imaging procedures that do not meet the needs of patients, health care providers or payers. Geographically operation of the group is carried through the United States, and it earns revenue from the sale of diagnostic tests.
Josh Riggs officer: Interim CEO 15 CUSHING, IRVINE CA 92618
Lou Silverman director
James Yang Liu officer: Controller, PAO C/O ONCOCYTE CORPORATION, 15 CUSHING, IRVINE CA 92618
John Peter Gutfreund director C/O ONCOCYTE CORPORATION, 15 CUSHING, IRVINE CA 92618
Anish M. John officer: SVP, Finance, and Interim CFO C/O ONCOCYTE CORPORATION,, 15 CUSHING, IRVINE CA 92618
Pura Vida Investments, Llc 10 percent owner 512 W 22ND STREET, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10011
Efrem Kamen 10 percent owner C/O PURA VIDA INVESTMENTS, LLC, 512 W 22ND STREET, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10011
Gisela Paulsen officer: Chief Operating Officer 5505 ENDEAVOR LANE, MADISON WI 53719
Li Yu officer: VP Cntrllr/Prncpl Acctng Offcr 120 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE., NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Jennifer L. Carter director C/O DFP SPONSOR LLC, 780 THIRD AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Douglas T. Ross officer: Chief Medical Officer 15 CUSHING, IRVINE CA 92618
Tony T Kalajian officer: SVP-Chief Accounting Officer 1010 ATLANTIC AVENUE, SUITE 102, ALAMEDA CA 94501
Melinda Griffith director 1010 ATLANTIC AVENUE, SUITE 102, ALAMEDA CA 94501
Padma Sundar officer: SVP, Marketing & Market Access 1010 ATLANTIC AVENUE, SUITE 102, ALAMEDA CA 94501
Ronald Asbury Andrews director 5791 VAN ALLEN WAY, CARLSBAD CA 92008

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