Peoples Financial (Peoples Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Peoples Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Peoples Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Peoples Financial (Peoples Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Peoples Financial Corp (OTCPK:PFBX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Lameuse and Howard Avenues, Biloxi, MS, USA, 39533

Website

https://www.thepeoples.com

Peoples Financial Corp is a bank holding company that provides banking, financial and trust services to individuals, small and commercial businesses operating in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama. The bank's lending services include business, commercial, real estate, construction, personal and installment loans; and deposit services include interest-bearing, non-interest-bearing checking accounts, savings accounts, certificates of deposit, and individual retirement accounts. It also offers safe deposit box rental, collection services, cash management, and internet banking.

Executives

Joseph Stilwell	10 percent owner	111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Chevis Swetman	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President/CEO	P.O. BOX 1416, BILOXI MS 39533-1416
Padrick D Dennis	director	12473 PRESERVATION DRIVE, GULFPORT MS 39503-7062
Rodney H Blackwell	other: See Explanation of Responses	P.O. BOX 18439, HATTIESBURG MS 39404
Stilwell Activist Investments, L.p.	10 percent owner	111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Stilwell Value Llc	10 percent owner	111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Stilwell Value Partners Vii, L.p.	10 percent owner	111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Stilwell Activist Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Katherine Paige Riley	director	920 WASHINGTON AVENUE, OCEAN SPRINGS MS 39564
Sliman George J Iii	director	723 HOWARD AVENUE, BILOXI MS 39530-4305
Ronald G Barnes	director	10600 JORDAN RD, VANCLEAVE MS 39565
Andrew T Swetman	10 percent owner, officer: Senior Vice President	152 LAMEUSE STREET, BILOXI MS 39530
Brian J Kozlowski	officer: Senior Vice President	155 LAMEUSE STREET, BILOXI MS 39530
James J Gruich	officer: Senior Vice President	7113 WAYNE LANE, BILOXI MS 39532-9361
Lauri A Wood	officer: Chief Financial Officer	P.O. BOX 1416, BILOXI MS 39533-1416