PulteGroup (PulteGroup) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1987. Start your Free Trial

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PulteGroup Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

PulteGroup Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of PulteGroup's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

PulteGroup (PulteGroup) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Homebuilding & Construction » PulteGroup Inc (NYSE:PHM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PHM:Mexico PU7:Germany PU7:Germany P1HM34:Brazil

Address

3350 Peachtree Road NE, Suite 1500, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30326

Website

https://www.pultegroupinc.com

PulteGroup Inc is one of the largest homebuilders in the United States, operating in 42 markets across 24 states. The company mainly builds single-family detached homes (85% of unit sales) and offers products to entry-level, move-up, and active-adult buyers. PulteGroup offers homebuyers mortgage financing and title agency services through its financial services segment. The company is headquartered in Atlanta.

Executives

Lila Snyder	director	3001, SUMMER STREET, STAMFORD CT 06926
Kevin A Henry	officer: EVP and Chief People Officer	13024 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, HARRIS BUILDING, SUITE 900, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Matthew William Koart	officer: Exec. VP & COO	3350 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1500, ATLANTA GA 30326
Robert Oshaughnessy	officer: Exec. VP & CFO	2555 TELEGRAPH RD., BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
Brian P Anderson	director	C/O PULTE HOMES, INC., 100 BLOOMFIELD HILLS PKWY #300, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48304
Ryan Marshall	officer: Area President	24311 WALDEN CENTER DR, STE 300, BONITA SPRINGS FL 34134
John James Chadwick	officer: Area President	3350 PEACHTREE ROAD NORTHEAST, SUITE 150, ATLANTA GA 30326
Brien P. O'meara	officer: Vice President & Controller	3350 PEACHTREE ROAD, N.E., SUITE 150, ATLANTA GA 30326
James Phillip Holloman	director	P.O. BOX 625737, 6800 CINTAS BOULEVARD, CINCINNATI OH 45262
Todd N Sheldon	officer: EVP, Gen Counsel, Corp Sec'y	3350 PEACHTREE ROAD NORTHEAST, SUITE 150, ATLANTA GA 30326
Stephen P Schlageter	other: Area President	3350 PEACHTREE ROAD NORTHEAST, SUITE 150, ATLANTA GA 30326
Bill Pulte	director	321 N. CLARK STREET, SUITE #500, CHICAGO IL 60654
Bryce Blair	director
James L Ossowski	officer: VP Finance & Controller	100 BLOOMFIELD HILLS PKWY, STE 300, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48304
Michelle H. Hairston	officer: Senior Vice President - HR	2308 WEST MORELAND STREET, FALLS CHURCH VA 22046