Stock Yards Bancorp (Stock Yards Bancorp) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1988. Start your Free Trial

What is Stock Yards Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Stock Yards Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Stock Yards Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Stock Yards Bancorp's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Stock Yards Bancorp (Stock Yards Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Stock Yards Bancorp Inc (NAS:SYBT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

S4Y:Germany

Address

1040 East Main Street, Louisville, KY, USA, 40206

Website

https://www.syb.com

Stock Yards Bancorp Inc operates as a bank. The bank has two reportable operating segments namely Commercial Banking and Wealth management and trust. Its services include loan and deposit services, cash management services, securities brokerage activities, mortgage origination, and others. It generates a majority of its revenue from the Commercial Banking segment.

Executives

Kathy C Thompson	director, officer: Executive Vice President	PO BOX 32890, LOUISVILLE KY 40232-2890
Allison Donovan	director	PO BOX 32890, LOUISVILLE KY 40232
James A Hillebrand	officer: Executive Vice President	13308 LONGWOOD LANE, GOSHEN KY 40026
David P Heintzman	director, officer: President	PO BOX 32890, LOUISVILLE KY 40232-2890
Shannon Bishop Arvin	director	PO BOX 157, PARIS KY 40362-0157
Richard A Lechleiter	director	PO BOX 32890, LOUISVILLE KY 40232-2890
John Schutte	director	9707 SHELBYVILLE ROAD, LOUISVILLE KY 40233
Carl G Herde	director	8210 LIMEHOUSE LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40220
Michael Croce	officer: Executive Vice President	PO BOX 32890, LOUISVILLE KY 40232-2890
Michael Rehm	officer: Executive Vice President	PO BOX 32890, LOUISVILLE KY 40232
Philip Poindexter	officer: Executive Vice President	320 MOCKINGBIRD HILL ROAD, LOUISVILLE KY 40207
Laura L Wells	director	PO BOX 32890, LOUISVILLE KY 40232
Bickel Paul J Iii	director	PO BOX 32890, LOUISVILLE KY 40232
Stephen M Priebe	director	PO BOX 32890, LOUISVILLE KY 40232-2890
William Dishman	officer: Executive Vice President	PO BOX 32890, LOUISVILLE KY 40232-2890