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Viasat (NAS:VSAT) Predictability Rank


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3.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Viasat Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Viasat Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Viasat's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Viasat (NAS:VSAT) Business Description

Viasat logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
6155 El Camino Real, Carlsbad, CA, USA, 92009
Viasat Inc provides bandwidth technologies and services in three segments: satellite services, which provides satellite-based high-speed broadband services to consumers, enterprises, and commercial airlines; commercial networks, which develops end-to-end communication and connectivity systems; and government systems, which produces network-centric Internet Protocol-based secure government communication systems. A large majority of the firm's revenue is generated in the United States, with the rest coming from the Americas, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific.
Executives
Miller Craig Andrew officer: Pres. Government Systems C/O VIASAT, INC. 6155 EL CAMINO REAL CARLSBAD CA 92009
Nathan Krishna officer: Chief Information Officer 55 WATER STREET NEW YORK NY 10020
Dixon Evan Christopher officer: Pres. Global Fixed Broadband C/O VIASAT, INC. 6155 EL CAMINO REAL CARLSBAD CA 92009
Bridenstine James Frederick director C/O VIASAT, INC. 6155 EL CAMINO REAL CARLSBAD CA 92009
Dodd James Michael officer: President, Global Mobile 6155 EL CAMINO REAL CARLSBAD CA 92009
Wise Theresa director 400 FAIRVIEW AVENUE NORTH SUITE 1200 SEATTLE WA 98109
Klarman Seth A 10 percent owner 10 ST JAMES AVENUE STE 1700 BOSTON MA 02116
Baupost Group Gp, L.l.c. 10 percent owner 10 ST. JAMES AVENUE SUITE 1700 BOSTON MA 02116
Baupost Group Llc/ma 10 percent owner 10 ST JAMES AVE SUITE 1700 BOSTON MA 02116
Ryan David Louis officer: President Space Systems 6155 EL CAMINO REAL CARLSBAD CA 92009
Agnew Marc Henry officer: VP Commercial Networks 6155 EL CAMINO REAL CARLSBAD CA 92009
Pak Sean director 6155 EL CAMINO REAL CARLSBAD CA 92009
Rao Varsha Rajendra director 6155 EL CAMINO REAL CARLSBAD CA 92009
Chandran Girish officer: VP and CTO 6155 EL CAMINO REAL CARLSBAD CA 92009
Blair Robert James Blair officer: Vice President 6155 EL CAMINO REAL CARLSBAD CA 92009

Viasat (NAS:VSAT) Headlines

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