VSAT (Viasat) Predictability Rank

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What is Viasat Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Viasat Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Viasat Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Viasat Inc (NAS:VSAT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0LPE:UK VS1:Germany

Address

2501 Gateway, Carlsbad, CA, USA, 92009

Website

https://www.viasat.com

Viasat Inc provides bandwidth technologies and services in three segments: satellite services: which provides satellite-based high-speed broadband services to consumers, enterprises, and commercial airlines; commercial networks: which develops end-to-end communication and connectivity systems; and government systems: which produces network-centric Internet Protocol-based secure government communication systems. A large majority of the firm's revenue is generated in the United States, it also has its presence in non U.S. countries.

Executives

Richard A Baldridge	officer: Chief Operating Officer	6155 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92009
Luxtopholding Sarl Triton	10 percent owner	1-3 BOULEVARD DE LA FOIRE, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-1528
Cpp Investment Board Private Holdings (4) Inc.	10 percent owner	1 QUEEN STREET EAST, SUITE 2500, TORONTO A6 M5C 2W5
Warburg Pincus (cayman) Global Growth Gp Llc	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Wp Triton Co-invest, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Ontario Teachers Pension Plan Board	10 percent owner	5650 YONGE STREET, TORONTO A6 M2M 4H5
Craig Andrew Miller	officer: Pres. Government Systems	C/O VIASAT, INC., 6155 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92009
Keven K Lippert	officer: Vice President General Counsel	6155 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92009
Benjamin Edward Palmer	officer: President, Maritime	C/O VIASAT, INC., 6155 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92009
James Michael Dodd	officer: President, Global Mobile	6155 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92009
Wp Global Growth Partners (cayman), L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus Global Growth Partners (cayman), L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus Global Growth-e (cayman), L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus Global Growth-b (cayman), L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus (europa) Global Growth (cayman), L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017