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Viasat (NAS:VSAT) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Viasat Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Viasat Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Viasat (NAS:VSAT) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
6155 El Camino Real, Carlsbad, CA, USA, 92009
Viasat Inc provides bandwidth technologies and services in three segments: satellite services, which provides satellite-based high-speed broadband services to consumers, enterprises, and commercial airlines; commercial networks, which develops end-to-end communication and connectivity systems; and government systems, which produces network-centric Internet Protocol-based secure government communication systems. A large majority of the firm's revenue is generated in the United States, with the rest coming from the Americas, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific.
Executives
Craig Andrew Miller officer: Pres. Government Systems C/O VIASAT, INC., 6155 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92009
Keven K Lippert officer: Vice President General Counsel 6155 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92009
Benjamin Edward Palmer officer: President, Maritime C/O VIASAT, INC., 6155 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92009
Richard A Baldridge officer: Chief Operating Officer 6155 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92009
James Michael Dodd officer: President, Global Mobile 6155 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92009
Warburg Pincus (europa) Global Growth (cayman), L.p. 10 percent owner C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus Llc 10 percent owner 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Mark Nieuwendijk 10 percent owner C/O PRETZEL LOGIC BV, WILHELMINALAAN 30, ZEIST P7 3701BL
Luxtopholding Sarl Triton 10 percent owner 1-3 BOULEVARD DE LA FOIRE, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-1528
Logic Bv Pretzel 10 percent owner WILHELMINALAAN 30, ZEIST P7 3701BL
Apax Ix Gp Co. Ltd 10 percent owner THIRD FLOOR, ROYAL BANK PLACE, 1 GLATEGNY ESPLANADE, ST PETER PORT Y7 GY5 7FS
Warburg Pincus (cayman) Global Growth Gp Llc 10 percent owner C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus (cayman) Global Growth Gp, L.p. 10 percent owner C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Andrew Sukawaty director C/O VIASAT, INC., 6155 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92009
Cpp Investment Board Private Holdings (4) Inc. 10 percent owner 1 QUEEN STREET EAST, SUITE 2500, TORONTO A6 M5C 2W5