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Wilhelmina International (Wilhelmina International) Predictability Rank


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What is Wilhelmina International Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Wilhelmina International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Wilhelmina International Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Wilhelmina International (Wilhelmina International) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Wilhelmina International Inc (NAS:WHLM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SGRP LICN TISI WBQNL ADMQ ELVG GPAK GPOX PMEC SMX TSE:2453 LSE:REL TSX:TRI CTAS CPRT XAMS:WKL GPN LSE:RTO ASX:BXB TSX:RBA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5420 Lyndon B Johnson Freeway, Box No. 25, Dallas, TX, USA, 75240
Website
https://www.wilhelmina.com
Wilhelmina International Inc is engaged in the business of fashion model management. The company provides traditional, full-service fashion model and talent management services, specializing in the representation and management of models, entertainers, artists, athletes and another talent to various clients which include retailers, designers, advertising agencies, print and electronic media and catalog companies. In addition, the company is also engaged in providing fashion modeling and talent product endorsement services to clients such as advertising agencies, branded consumer goods companies, fashion designers, magazine publications, retailers, department stores, product catalogs and Internet sites.
Executives
Retail Ecommerce Ventures Llc 10 percent owner 1680 MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 700, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139
Aimee Nelson director 2125 BISCAYNE BLVD SUITE 253, MIAMI FL 33137
Modell's Sporting Goods Online Inc. 10 percent owner 1680 MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 700, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139
Alexander Mehr director, 10 percent owner C/O ZOOSK, INC., 989 MARKET STREET, FIFTH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Rev Alpha Holdings Llc 10 percent owner 1680 MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 700, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139
Tai Lopez 10 percent owner C/O WILHELMINA INTERNATIONAL, INC., 200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75201
Dieter Esch 10 percent owner 1090 PRIMROSE PLACE, PARK CITY UT 84098
Maya Burkenroad director C/O WILHELMINA INTERNATIONAL, INC., 200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75201
Ralph Bartel 10 percent owner CASELLA POSTALE 823, 6612 ASCONA V8 6612
James Andrew Mccarthy officer: Chief Financial Officer 300 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, NEW YORK NY 10010
William Wackermann officer: Chief Executive Officer 300 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
David Chaiken officer: Chief Accounting Officer WILHELMINA MODELS, INC., 300 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, NEW YORK NY 10010
James C Roddey director 20 STANWIX STREET, SUITE 800, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Ncm Services, Inc. 10 percent owner 5420 LYNDON B. JOHNSON FREEWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75240
Alex Vaickus officer: Chief Executive Officer PLAYBOY ENT., INC. - H. SHAPIRO, 680 N LAKE SHORE DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60611