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FortescueFSUGY -0.55%84 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.36% as of Jun. 2025, which is 54% below its 10-year median of 26.86. GuruFocus rates FSUGY with a GF Score™ of 84/100 and a GF Value™ of $28.08 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 442 Metals & Mining companies, Fortescue ranks better than 51.36% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Fortescue's forward rate of return for was 12.36%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Fortescue's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
FSUGY'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 10.03 Med: 26.86 Max: 37.85
Current: 10.03
During the past 13 years, Fortescue's highest Forward Rate of Return was 37.85. The lowest was 10.03. And the median was 26.86.
FSUGY's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 51.36% of 442
companies
in the Metals & Mining industry
Industry Median: 9.205
vs FSUGY: 10.03
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Fortescue (OTCPK:FSUGY) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Fortescue Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Fortescue Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Fortescue's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Fortescue Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
Fortescue Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Competitor Comparison
For the Other Industrial Metals & Mining subindustry, Fortescue's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Fortescue Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Metals & Mining Industry
For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Fortescue's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Fortescue's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Fortescue Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
Fortescue's Forward Rate of Return of Jun. 2025 is
Forward Rate of Return
=
Normalized Free Cash Flow
/
Price
+
5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=
3.28283333
/
19.98
+
-0.0507
=
11.36 %
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 12.36% mean?
Fortescue (FSUGY) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 12.36% as of Jun. 2025. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Fortescue and its competitors. This is 54% below median its historical median of 26.86. Over the past decade, Fortescue's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 10.03 to 37.85. According to the industry distribution chart, Fortescue ranks #215 out of 442 companies in the Metals & Mining industry, placing it in the top 48.6%.
Is Fortescue's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Fortescue's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 12.36% is 54% below median its 10-year median of 26.86. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 10.03 to a high of 37.85. The Metals & Mining industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.21. Fortescue's value of 12.36% is 34.3% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Fortescue ranks #215 out of 442 companies in the Metals & Mining industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Fortescue has a GF Score™ of 84/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Fortescue's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to competitors?
According to the Metals & Mining industry distribution chart, Fortescue ranks #215 out of 442 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This puts Fortescue in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.21. Fortescue's value of 12.36% is 34.3% above this benchmark. Historically, Fortescue's own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 10.03 to 37.85 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 26.86 vs. the industry median of 9.21, Fortescue has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Metals & Mining company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Metals & Mining companies is 9.21, based on 442 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Fortescue's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 12.36% is 34.3% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Fortescue and its competitors. For the Metals & Mining industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.21 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Fortescue's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.36%, which is 54% below median its own 10-year median of 26.86. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Fortescue stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Fortescue (FSUGY) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $28.08, compared to a current price of $25.30 — trading 9.9% below its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.36%, which is 54% below median its 10-year median of 26.86 and 34.3% above the Metals & Mining industry median of 9.21. Fortescue's overall GF Score™ is 84/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Fortescue (FSUGY), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.36% as of Jun. 2025. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Fortescue (FSUGY) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Fortescue stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $25.30 is trading 9.9% below its estimated GF Value™ of $28.08.
GuruFocus considers Fortescue to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for FSUGY:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 12.36% (54% below median its 10-year median of 26.86)
GF Value™: $28.08 vs. price of $25.30 (9.9% below fair value)
Industry Position: 34.3% above the Metals & Mining median (#215 of 442)
No single metric tells the full story. See the FSUGY stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Fortescue is an Australia-based iron ore miner. It has grown from obscurity at the start of 2008 to become the world's fourth-largest producer. Growth was fueled by debt, now repaid. Expansion from 55 million metric tons in fiscal 2012 to about 195 million metric tons in 2025 means Fortescue supplies around 10% of global seaborne iron ore. Further expansion to about 210 million metric tons is likely once its 22 million metric ton Iron Bridge magnetite mine ramps up, likely in 2028. However, with longer-term demand likely to decline as China's economy matures, its future margins are likely to be below historical averages. More recently, Fortescue diversified into copper and green energy. It has big ambitions here, but its efforts are at an early stage.
84GF Score
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