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ORIXIX +0.52%64 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 11.52% as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus rates IX with a GF Score™ of 64/100 and a GF Value™ of $31.29 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 68 Diversified Financial Services companies, ORIX ranks worse than 51.47% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. ORIX's forward rate of return for was 11.52%.
The historical rank and industry rank for ORIX's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
IX'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -22.2 Med: -0.3 Max: 12.84
Current: 11.35
During the past 13 years, ORIX's highest Forward Rate of Return was 12.84. The lowest was -22.20. And the median was -0.30.
IX's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 51.47% of 68
companies
in the Diversified Financial Services industry
Industry Median: 11.48
vs IX: 11.35
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
ORIX (NYSE:IX) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of Book Value per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
ORIX Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
ORIX Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for ORIX's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
IX vs VOYA, FRHC: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Financial Conglomerates subindustry, ORIX's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
ORIX Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Diversified Financial Services Industry
For the Diversified Financial Services industry and Financial Services sector, ORIX's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where ORIX's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
ORIX Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 11.52% mean?
ORIX (IX) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 11.52% as of Mar. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on ORIX and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, ORIX ranks #35 out of 68 companies in the Diversified Financial Services industry, placing it in the top 51.5%.
Is ORIX's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
ORIX's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 11.52%. The Diversified Financial Services industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 11.48. ORIX's value of 11.52% is 0.3% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, ORIX ranks #35 out of 68 companies in the Diversified Financial Services industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, ORIX has a GF Score™ of 64/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does ORIX's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to VOYA and FRHC?
According to the Diversified Financial Services industry distribution chart, ORIX ranks #35 out of 68 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places ORIX in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 11.48. ORIX's value of 11.52% is 0.3% above this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Diversified Financial Services company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Diversified Financial Services companies is 11.48, based on 68 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. ORIX's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 11.52% is 0.3% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on ORIX and its competitors. For the Diversified Financial Services industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 11.48 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. ORIX's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 11.52%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is ORIX stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, ORIX (IX) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $31.29, compared to a current price of $40.31 — trading 28.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 11.52% and 0.3% above the Diversified Financial Services industry median of 11.48. ORIX's overall GF Score™ is 64/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For ORIX (IX), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 11.52% as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is ORIX (IX) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, ORIX stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $40.31 is trading 28.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of $31.29.
GuruFocus considers ORIX to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for IX:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 11.52%
GF Value™: $31.29 vs. price of $40.31 (28.8% above fair value)
Industry Position: 0.3% above the Diversified Financial Services median (#35 of 68)
No single metric tells the full story. See the IX stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
ORIX Corp is a diversified financial services company with operations in Corporate Financial Services, Maintenance Leasing, Real Estate, PE Investment and Concession, Environment and Energy, Insurance, Banking and Credit, Aircraft and Ships, ORIX USA, ORIX Europe, Asia, and Australia and engages in various other fee businesses by providing products and services aligned with customer needs to its core customer base of domestic small and medium-sized enterprises. Orix's numerous divisions finance leases of large-ticket items like ships, airplanes, and technology equipment. The company generates the majority of its revenue from Corporate Financial Services and Maintenance Leasing operations and Real Estate operations.
64GF Score
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