Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Stadler Rail AGXSWX:SRAIL -0.17%76 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 3.93% as of Dec. 2025, which is 9% above its 10-year median of 3.62. GuruFocus rates XSWX:SRAIL with a GF Score™ of 76/100 and a GF Value™ of CHF32.93 (Modestly Undervalued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 752 Transportation companies, Stadler Rail AG ranks worse than 66.62% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Stadler Rail AG's forward rate of return for was 3.93%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Stadler Rail AG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
XSWX:SRAIL'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.11 Med: 3.62 Max: 4.59
Current: 3.71
During the past 10 years, Stadler Rail AG's highest Forward Rate of Return was 4.59. The lowest was -2.11. And the median was 3.62.
XSWX:SRAIL's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 66.62% of 752
companies
in the Transportation industry
Industry Median: 10.59
vs XSWX:SRAIL: 3.71
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Stadler Rail AG (XSWX:SRAIL) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Stadler Rail AG Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Stadler Rail AG Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Stadler Rail AG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Stadler Rail AG Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
XSWX:SRAIL vs UNP, CSX, NSC: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Railroads subindustry, Stadler Rail AG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Stadler Rail AG Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Transportation Industry
For the Transportation industry and Industrials sector, Stadler Rail AG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Stadler Rail AG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Stadler Rail AG Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 3.93% mean?
Stadler Rail AG (XSWX:SRAIL) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 3.93% as of Dec. 2025. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Stadler Rail AG and its competitors. This is near median its historical median of 3.62. According to the industry distribution chart, Stadler Rail AG ranks #501 out of 752 companies in the Transportation industry, placing it in the top 66.6%.
Is Stadler Rail AG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Stadler Rail AG's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 3.93% is near median its 10-year median of 3.62. The Transportation industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.59. Stadler Rail AG's value of 3.93% is 62.9% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Stadler Rail AG ranks #501 out of 752 companies in the Transportation industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Stadler Rail AG has a GF Score™ of 76/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Stadler Rail AG's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to UNP and CSX?
According to the Transportation industry distribution chart, Stadler Rail AG ranks #501 out of 752 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Stadler Rail AG in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.59. Stadler Rail AG's value of 3.93% is 62.9% below this benchmark. While the company's 10-year median is 3.62 vs. the industry median of 10.59, Stadler Rail AG has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Transportation company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Transportation companies is 10.59, based on 752 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Stadler Rail AG's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 3.93% is 62.9% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Stadler Rail AG and its competitors. For the Transportation industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.59 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Stadler Rail AG's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 3.93%, which is near median its own 10-year median of 3.62. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Stadler Rail AG stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Stadler Rail AG (XSWX:SRAIL) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is CHF32.93, compared to a current price of CHF23.44 — trading 28.8% below its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 3.93%, which is near median its 10-year median of 3.62 and 62.9% below the Transportation industry median of 10.59. Stadler Rail AG's overall GF Score™ is 76/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Stadler Rail AG (XSWX:SRAIL), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 3.93% as of Dec. 2025. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Stadler Rail AG (XSWX:SRAIL) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Stadler Rail AG stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of CHF23.44 is trading 28.8% below its estimated GF Value™ of CHF32.93.
GuruFocus considers Stadler Rail AG to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for XSWX:SRAIL:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 3.93% (near median its 10-year median of 3.62)
GF Value™: CHF32.93 vs. price of CHF23.44 (28.8% below fair value)
Industry Position: 62.9% below the Transportation median (#501 of 752)
No single metric tells the full story. See the XSWX:SRAIL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Stadler Rail AG is a Switzerland based producer of rolling stock and related systems. The company operates in three reportable segments that are Rolling Stock segment which include the manufacturing of various types of rail vehicles. The Service & Components segment offers full service, modernization and revision, spare parts service, and vehicle repairs, including the maintenance and assessment of defects, and Signalling segment develops and distributes various signalling solutions for vehicles and infrastructures. Geographically, the company operates in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, America, CIS and Rest of the world.
76GF Score
Get the complete analysis for XSWX:SRAIL
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
XSWX:SRAIL has been successfully added to your 
