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Peloton Interactive (NAS:PTON) Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $-18.95 (As of Jun23)
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As of Jun23, Peloton Interactive's earnings power value is $-18.95. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is N/A.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Peloton Interactive Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Peloton Interactive's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Peloton Interactive Annual Data
Trend Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -18.95

Peloton Interactive Quarterly Data
Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - -16.93 -17.68 -18.95

Competitive Comparison

For the Leisure subindustry, Peloton Interactive's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Peloton Interactive Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Peloton Interactive's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Peloton Interactive's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls in comparison to its industry or sector. The grey bar indicates the Earnings Power Value (EPV)'s extreme value range as defined by GuruFocus.



Peloton Interactive Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Peloton Interactive's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 2,629
DDA 79
Operating Margin % -23.46
SGA * 25% 301
Tax Rate % 2.43
Maintenance Capex 159
Cash and Cash Equivalents 814
Short-Term Debt 91
Long-Term Debt 2,273
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 355

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = -23.46%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $2,629 Mil, Average Operating Margin = -23.46%, Average Adjusted SGA = 301,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 2,629 * -23.46% +301 = $-315.9888672 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 2.43%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $-315.9888672 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = -315.9888672 * ( 1 - 2.43% ) = $-308.32139733739 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 79 * 0.5 * 2.43% = $0.9531292 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = -308.32139733739 + 0.9531292 = $-307.36826813739 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Peloton Interactive's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $159 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Peloton Interactive's current cash and cash equivalent = $814 Mil.
Peloton Interactive's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 2,273 + 91 = $2363.7 Mil.
Peloton Interactive's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 355 Mil.

Peloton Interactive's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Jun23 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( -307.36826813739 - 159)/ 9%+814-2363.7 )/355
=-18.95

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( -18.947431923062-5.055 )/-18.947431923062
= N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Peloton Interactive  (NAS:PTON) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Peloton Interactive Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Peloton Interactive's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Peloton Interactive (NAS:PTON) Business Description

Peloton Interactive logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
441 Ninth Avenue, Sixth Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10001
Peloton Interactive Inc operates an interactive fitness platform. It operates its business in two reportable segments: Connected Fitness Products and Subscription. Connected Fitness Product revenue consists of sales of bike and tread and related accessories, associated fees for delivery and installation, and extended warranty agreements. Subscription revenue consists of revenue generated from monthly Connected Fitness Subscription and Digital Subscription. The company generates the majority of the revenue from the sale of Connected Fitness Products.
Executives
Leslie Berland officer: Chief Marketing Officer C/O PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC., 441 NINTH AVENUE, SIXTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Saqib Baig officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC., 441 NINTH AVENUE, SIXTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Jennifer Cunningham Cotter officer: Chief Content Officer C/O PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC., 441 NINTH AVENUE, SIXTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Elizabeth F Coddington officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC., 441 NINTH AVENUE, SIXTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Andrew S Rendich officer: Chief Supply Chain Officer 100 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Barry Mccarthy director, officer: CEO and President 100 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Angel L Mendez director C/O SLEEP NUMBER CORPORATION, 1001 THIRD AVENUE SOUTH, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55404
Jonathan Mildenhall director C/O GRAUBARD MILLER, 405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10174
Jay C Hoag director 250 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Kevin Cornils officer: Chief Commercial Officer C/O PELOTON INTERACTIVE, INC., 441 NINTH AVENUE, SIXTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Tcv X (a), L.p. other: May be part of 13(d) group 250 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Tcv Ix (a), L.p. other: May be part of 13(d) group 250 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Technology Crossover Management X, Ltd. other: May be part of 13(d) group C/O TECHNOLOGY CROSSOVER VENTURES, 250 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Technology Crossover Management X, L.p. other: May be part of 13(d) group 250 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Tcv Ix Cycle, L.p. 10 percent owner, other: May be part of 13(d) group 250 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025

Peloton Interactive (NAS:PTON) Headlines

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