CIEN has been successfully added to your Stock Email Alerts list.
You can manage your stock email alerts here.
CIEN has been removed from your Stock Email Alerts list.
Please enter Portfolio Name for new portfolio.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Ciena's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Communication Equipment subindustry, Ciena's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, Ciena's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Ciena's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | -8.37 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 0.02% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Ciena (NYSE:CIEN) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Ciena's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Joseph Cumello | officer: SVP, General Mgr. Blue Planet | 7035 RIDGE RD, HANOVER MD 21076 |
David M Rothenstein | officer: Sr. VP, General Counsel | 7035 RIDGE ROAD, HANOVER MD 21076 |
Dino Diperna | officer: SVP Global R&D | 385 TERRY FOX DR, OTTAWA A6 K2K OL1 |
Jason Phipps | officer: SVP Global Sales and Marketing | 7410 RIDGE RD, HANOVER MD 21076 |
Gary B Smith | director, officer: President, CEO | C/O CIENA CORPORATION, 7035 RIDGE ROAD, HANOVER MD 21076 |
Brodie Gage | officer: SVP Global Products & Supply | 2351 ALFRED-NOBEL BLVD, SUITE N-300, SAINT LAURENT A8 H4S 2A9 |
Scott Mcfeely | officer: SVP, Networking Platforms | 7035 RIDGE RD, HANOVER MD 21076 |
Mary G Puma | director | AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES INC., 108 CHERRY HILL DRIVE, BEVERLY MA 01915 |
Andrew C Petrik | officer: VP, CONTROLLER | 7035 RIDGE ROAD, HANOVER MD 21076 |
Sheela Kosaraju | officer: SVP, General Counsel | 43-51 WORSHIP ST, LONDON X0 EC2A 2DX |
Stephen B Alexander | officer: SVP, Chief Technology Officer | C/O CIENA CORPORATION, 7035 RIDGE ROAD, HANOVER MD 21076 |
Rick Hamilton | officer: SVP, Software and Services | 9500 AMBERGIEN, AUSTIN TX 78729 |
Moylan James E Jr | officer: SVP Finance, CFO | CIENA CORPORATION, 7035 RIDGE ROAD, HANOVER MD 21076 |
Judith M Obrien | director | 855 MAUDE AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043 |
Thomas Michael Nevens | director | C/O BORLAND SOFTWARE CORPORATION, 20450 STEVENS CREEK BLVD, SUITE 800, CUPERTINO CA 95014 |
From GuruFocus
By Business Wire • 06-03-2024
By Business Wire • 08-29-2024
By Business Wire • 08-20-2024
By Business Wire • 08-06-2024
By Business Wire • 07-10-2024
By GuruFocus Research • 06-07-2024
By Business Wire • 09-10-2024
By Business Wire • 09-04-2024
By GuruFocus Research • 09-04-2024
By GuruFocus Research • 06-07-2024
Disclaimers: GuruFocus.com is not operated by a broker or a dealer. It has an affiliated registered investment adviser, which serves as the subadviser to an exchange traded fund. This investment adviser does not provide advice to individual investors. Under no circumstances does any information posted on GuruFocus.com represent a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendations. The individuals or entities selected as "gurus" may buy and sell securities before and after any particular article and report and information herein is published, with respect to the securities discussed in any article and report posted herein. Gurus may be added or dropped from the GuruFocus site at any time. In no event shall GuruFocus.com be liable to any member, guest or third party for any damages of any kind arising out of the use of any content or other material published or available on GuruFocus.com, or relating to the use of, or inability to use, GuruFocus.com or any content, including, without limitation, any investment losses, lost profits, lost opportunity, special, incidental, indirect, consequential or punitive damages. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute investment advice or recommendations. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way. The gurus listed in this website are not affiliated with GuruFocus.com, LLC. Stock quotes provided by InterActive Data. Fundamental company data provided by Morningstar, updated daily.