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Ciena (CIEN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) : $19.70 (As of Jul. 21, 2024)


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What is Ciena Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)?

As of today (2024-07-21), Ciena's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $19.70.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Ciena's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Ciena is -150.71%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Ciena's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

CIEN's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is not ranked *
in the Hardware industry.
Industry Median: 0.99
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) only.

Ciena Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Ciena's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Ciena Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart

Ciena Annual Data
Trend Oct14 Oct15 Oct16 Oct17 Oct18 Oct19 Oct20 Oct21 Oct22 Oct23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
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Ciena Quarterly Data
Jul19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jul20 Oct20 Jan21 Apr21 Jul21 Oct21 Jan22 Apr22 Jul22 Oct22 Jan23 Apr23 Jul23 Oct23 Jan24 Apr24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Ciena's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

For the Communication Equipment subindustry, Ciena's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Ciena's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution in the Hardware Industry

For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, Ciena's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Ciena's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.



Ciena Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.24%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Ciena's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 3.10%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $1.707.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Ciena's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=1.707*11.5406
=19.70

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(19.7-49.39)/19.7
=-150.71 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Ciena  (NYSE:CIEN) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Ciena Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Ciena's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Ciena (CIEN) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Ciena Corp (NYSE:CIEN) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Address
7035 Ridge Road, Hanover, MD, USA, 21076
Ciena Corp is a network and technology company. It provides network hardware, software, and services that support the transport, switching, aggregation, service delivery, and management of video, data, and voice traffic on communications networks. It serves various industries such as communication services providers, web-scale providers, cable operators, government, and large enterprises world-wide. The business activities function through Networking Platforms; Platform Software and Services; Blue Planet Automation Software, and Global Services segments. Geographically, its presence is seen in the markets of the United States, Canada, the Caribbean, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and India. The maximum revenue is generated from Americas.
Executives
David M Rothenstein officer: Sr. VP, General Counsel 7035 RIDGE ROAD, HANOVER MD 21076
Gary B Smith director, officer: President, CEO C/O CIENA CORPORATION, 7035 RIDGE ROAD, HANOVER MD 21076
Brodie Gage officer: SVP Global Products & Supply 2351 ALFRED-NOBEL BLVD, SUITE N-300, SAINT LAURENT A8 H4S 2A9
Dino Diperna officer: SVP Global R&D 385 TERRY FOX DR, OTTAWA A6 K2K OL1
Jason Phipps officer: SVP Global Sales and Marketing 7410 RIDGE RD, HANOVER MD 21076
Joseph Cumello officer: SVP, General Mgr. Blue Planet 7035 RIDGE RD, HANOVER MD 21076
Scott Mcfeely officer: SVP, Networking Platforms 7035 RIDGE RD, HANOVER MD 21076
Mary G Puma director AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES INC., 108 CHERRY HILL DRIVE, BEVERLY MA 01915
Andrew C Petrik officer: VP, CONTROLLER 7035 RIDGE ROAD, HANOVER MD 21076
Sheela Kosaraju officer: SVP, General Counsel 43-51 WORSHIP ST, LONDON X0 EC2A 2DX
Stephen B Alexander officer: SVP, Chief Technology Officer C/O CIENA CORPORATION, 7035 RIDGE ROAD, HANOVER MD 21076
Rick Hamilton officer: SVP, Software and Services 9500 AMBERGIEN, AUSTIN TX 78729
Moylan James E Jr officer: SVP Finance, CFO CIENA CORPORATION, 7035 RIDGE ROAD, HANOVER MD 21076
Judith M Obrien director 855 MAUDE AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Thomas Michael Nevens director C/O BORLAND SOFTWARE CORPORATION, 20450 STEVENS CREEK BLVD, SUITE 800, CUPERTINO CA 95014