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Ciena (CIEN) Predictability Rank


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What is Ciena Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Ciena Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Ciena Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Ciena's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Ciena (CIEN) Business Description

Address
7035 Ridge Road, Hanover, MD, USA, 21076
Ciena Corp is a network and technology company. It provides network hardware, software, and services that support the transport, switching, aggregation, service delivery, and management of video, data, and voice traffic on communications networks. It serves various industries such as communication services providers, web-scale providers, cable operators, government, and large enterprises world-wide. The business activities function through Networking Platforms; Platform Software and Services; Blue Planet Automation Software, and Global Services segments. Geographically, its presence is seen in the markets of the United States, Canada, the Caribbean, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, Japan, and India. The maximum revenue is generated from Americas.
Executives
David M Rothenstein officer: Sr. VP, General Counsel 7035 RIDGE ROAD, HANOVER MD 21076
Gary B Smith director, officer: President, CEO C/O CIENA CORPORATION, 7035 RIDGE ROAD, HANOVER MD 21076
Brodie Gage officer: SVP Global Products & Supply 2351 ALFRED-NOBEL BLVD, SUITE N-300, SAINT LAURENT A8 H4S 2A9
Dino Diperna officer: SVP Global R&D 385 TERRY FOX DR, OTTAWA A6 K2K OL1
Jason Phipps officer: SVP Global Sales and Marketing 7410 RIDGE RD, HANOVER MD 21076
Joseph Cumello officer: SVP, General Mgr. Blue Planet 7035 RIDGE RD, HANOVER MD 21076
Scott Mcfeely officer: SVP, Networking Platforms 7035 RIDGE RD, HANOVER MD 21076
Mary G Puma director AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES INC., 108 CHERRY HILL DRIVE, BEVERLY MA 01915
Andrew C Petrik officer: VP, CONTROLLER 7035 RIDGE ROAD, HANOVER MD 21076
Sheela Kosaraju officer: SVP, General Counsel 43-51 WORSHIP ST, LONDON X0 EC2A 2DX
Stephen B Alexander officer: SVP, Chief Technology Officer C/O CIENA CORPORATION, 7035 RIDGE ROAD, HANOVER MD 21076
Rick Hamilton officer: SVP, Software and Services 9500 AMBERGIEN, AUSTIN TX 78729
Moylan James E Jr officer: SVP Finance, CFO CIENA CORPORATION, 7035 RIDGE ROAD, HANOVER MD 21076
Judith M Obrien director 855 MAUDE AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Thomas Michael Nevens director C/O BORLAND SOFTWARE CORPORATION, 20450 STEVENS CREEK BLVD, SUITE 800, CUPERTINO CA 95014