VCredit Holdings (FRA:5R6) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 1.36% (As of Jul. 24, 2026)

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FRA:5R6 VCredit Holdings Ltd FRA:5R6
21 GF Score
Price €0.09
GF Value €0.06
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 3 Warning Signs
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What is VCredit Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

VCredit Holdings FRA:5R6 -1.64% 21 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.36% as of Jul. 24, 2026. GuruFocus rates FRA:5R6 with a GF Score™ of 21/100 and a GF Value™ of €0.06 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, VCredit Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.36%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


VCredit Holdings  (FRA:5R6) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


VCredit Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


FRA:5R6 vs V, MA, AXP: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Credit Services subindustry, VCredit Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


VCredit Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Credit Services Industry

For the Credit Services industry and Financial Services sector, VCredit Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where VCredit Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


FRA:5R6
21GF Score
VCredit Holdings Ltd FRA:5R6
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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VCredit Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-4.28

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=1.36%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:


4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 1.36% mean?
VCredit Holdings (FRA:5R6) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 1.36% as of Jul. 24, 2026.
Is VCredit Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
VCredit Holdings' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.36%. Overall, VCredit Holdings has a GF Score™ of 21/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does VCredit Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to V and MA?
VCredit Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 1.36% can be compared against companies in the Credit Services industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Credit Services company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Credit Services industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. VCredit Holdings's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.36%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is VCredit Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, VCredit Holdings (FRA:5R6) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is €0.06, compared to a current price of €0.09 — trading 50% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.36%. VCredit Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 21/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For VCredit Holdings (FRA:5R6), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 1.36% as of Jul. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is VCredit Holdings (FRA:5R6) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, VCredit Holdings stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of €0.09 is trading 50% above its estimated GF Value™ of €0.06. GuruFocus considers VCredit Holdings to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for FRA:5R6:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 1.36%
  • GF Value™: €0.06 vs. price of €0.09 (50% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 21/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the FRA:5R6 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


VCredit Holdings Business Description

Other Exchanges 02003:Hong Kong
Address 19th Floor, Two Pacific Place, Suite 1918, 88 Queensway, Hong Kong, HKG, 200085
VCredit Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company and has one operating segment. The Group is a technology-driven consumer financial service provider in the People's Republic of China. The Group offers tailored consumer finance products to prime and near-prime borrowers who are underserved by traditional financial institutions. The Group also offers consumer finance products by facilitating transactions between borrowers and financial institutions. The company generates the majority of its revenue from Interest and similar income.
21GF Score

Get the complete analysis for FRA:5R6

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

€0.09
Price
€0.06
GF Value