PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk (ISX:TCID) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.01% (As of Jun. 26, 2026)


ISX:TCID PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk ISX:TCID
74 GF Score
Price Rp2,820.00
GF Value Rp2,841.73
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 1 Warning Sign
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What is PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk ISX:TCID 74 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01% as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates ISX:TCID with a GF Score™ of 74/100 and a GF Value™ of Rp2,841.73 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 1 warning sign investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk  (ISX:TCID) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


ISX:TCID vs PG, CL, KVUE: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Household & Personal Products subindustry, PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Consumer Packaged Goods Industry

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


ISX:TCID
74GF Score
PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk ISX:TCID
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.89

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.01%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% mean?
PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk (ISX:TCID) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% as of Jun. 26, 2026.
Is PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. Overall, PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk has a GF Score™ of 74/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to PG and CL?
PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.01% can be compared against companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Consumer Packaged Goods company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Consumer Packaged Goods industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk (ISX:TCID) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is Rp2,841.73, compared to a current price of Rp2,820.00 — trading 0.8% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01%. PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk's overall GF Score™ is 74/100 with 1 warning sign to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk (ISX:TCID), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.01% as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk (ISX:TCID) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of Rp2,820.00 is trading 0.8% below its estimated GF Value™ of Rp2,841.73. GuruFocus considers PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for ISX:TCID:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.01%
  • GF Value™: Rp2,841.73 vs. price of Rp2,820.00 (0.8% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 74/100 with 1 warning sign

No single metric tells the full story. See the ISX:TCID stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk Business Description

Address Jalan. Jend. Sudirman Kavling 1, Wisma 46 Kota BNI, Suite 7.01, 7th Floor, Jakarta, IDN, 10220
PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk is an Indonesia-based company. It is engaged in the manufacture of cosmetics products. It operates through single segment namely Cosmetics. It markets its product under the brand GATSBY, PUCELLE, and LOVILLEA. Additionally, it also produces other products under the brand Tancho, Mandom, Lovillea, Miratone, and others. The company exports its goods both domestic and international markets including the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia, Japan, Thailand, Philippines, India, Singapore, Korea, Vietnam, China, Hongkong, and Taiwan.
74GF Score

Get the complete analysis for ISX:TCID

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

Rp2,820.00
Price
Rp2,841.73
GF Value