What is Pohjola Pankki Oyj Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Pohjola Pankki Oyj's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Pohjola Pankki Oyj's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Pohjola Pankki Oyj's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Pohjola Pankki Oyj's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Banks Industry
For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Pohjola Pankki Oyj's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Pohjola Pankki Oyj's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Pohjola Pankki Oyj Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Pohjola Pankki Oyj (LTS:0ICL) Business Description
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Pohjola Pankki Oyj, provides banking, non-life insurance and wealth management services. It serves businesses, institutions and private individuals and provides banking and insurance services to customers while supporting corporate customers' business.. The Company operates through the following three business segments: Banking, Asset Management, and Non-life Insurance. The banking segment provides corporate and institutional customers with solutions for their financing and financial management needs. Banking consists of the following divisions: Corporate Banking, Markets and Baltic Banking. Companies within Banking are the member banks, Helsinki OP Bank PLC, OP-Kotipankki Oyj, OP Mortgage Bank and OP Fund Management Company Ltd and certain smaller companies supporting banking services in its entirety. The Company's Banking and Asset Management segments are also included under OP-Pohjola Group's Banking. The operations of OP Bank Group Mutual Insurance Company's are also included under Banking as the company's business consists of credit insurance to OP-Pohjola Group's retail banks. The Wealth Management Segment comprises the following operations: OP Life Assurance Company Ltd and Aurum Investment Insurance Ltd engaged in the Company's life and pension insurance business, OP Fund Management Company Ltd engaged in mutual fund business, and Pohjola Group's Asset Management segment. The Non-life Insurance segment encompasses the operations of OP-Pohjola Group's non-life insurance companies, i.e. Pohjola Insurance Ltd, Eurooppalainen Insurance Company Ltd, A-Insurance Ltd, the Seesam companies operating in the Baltic countries, as well as the operations of service companies supporting non-life insurance. Non-life insurance products include non-life insurance policies sold to corporate and private customers.
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