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Winmark Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 15.55% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Winmark's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 15.55%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Specialty Retail subindustry, Winmark's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Winmark Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Winmark's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Winmark's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Winmark Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-1.69

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=15.55%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Winmark  (NAS:WINA) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Winmark Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Winmark's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Winmark Business Description

Winmark logo
Industry
Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical NAICS : 533110 SIC : 5999
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
605 Highway 169 North, Suite 400, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55441
Winmark Corp is a franchisor of value-oriented retail store concepts that buy, sell and trade gently used the merchandise. The company's reportable segments include Franchising and Leasing. The franchising segment franchises value-oriented retail store that buys, sells, trade and consign merchandise as well as provide strategic consulting services relating to franchising. The leasing segment includes middle-market equipment leasing business and small-ticket financing business. It generates a majority of its revenue from the Franchising segment.
Executives
Mackenzie Kirk A director 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Wilson Mark L director 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Gaudette Renae M. officer: President of Franchising 605 HIGHWAY 169 N, SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Heffes Brett D director, officer: Chairman and CEO 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Ishaug Anthony D officer: Chief Financial Officer 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Barbetta Lawrence A director 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Reyelts Paul C director 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Grassle Jenele C director 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Goff Leah A officer: VP of Human Resources 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Olson Ronald G 10 percent owner GROWN BIZ INTERNATIONAL INC 4200 DAHLBERG DRIVE MINNEAPOLIS MN 55422-4837
Morgan John L director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman 605 HIGHWAY 169 SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Murphy Steven officer: President of Franchising 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Zola Steven C director, officer: President, Winmark Capital 605 HWY 169 N SUITE 400 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55441
Bradshaw James Shel 10 percent owner 12600 HILL COUNTRY BLVD SUITE R-230 AUSTIN TX 78738
Bares Brian Timothy 10 percent owner 12600 HILL COUNTRY BLVD SUITE R-230 AUSTIN TX 78738

Winmark Headlines

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