Gendai Agency (TSE:2411) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.00% (As of Jul. 18, 2026)

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

TSE:2411 Gendai Agency Inc TSE:2411
68 GF Score
Price 円460.00
GF Value 円443.39
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 1 Warning Sign
View Full Analysis

What is Gendai Agency Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Gendai Agency TSE:2411 -2.54% 68 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00% as of Jul. 18, 2026. GuruFocus rates TSE:2411 with a GF Score™ of 68/100 and a GF Value™ of 円443.39 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 1 warning sign investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Gendai Agency's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Gendai Agency  (TSE:2411) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Gendai Agency Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


TSE:2411 vs APP, OMC, TTD: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Advertising Agencies subindustry, Gendai Agency's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Gendai Agency Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Media - Diversified Industry

For the Media - Diversified industry and Communication Services sector, Gendai Agency's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Gendai Agency's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


TSE:2411
68GF Score
Gendai Agency Inc TSE:2411
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Gendai Agency Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-10.75

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.00%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.00% mean?
Gendai Agency (TSE:2411) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.00% as of Jul. 18, 2026.
Is Gendai Agency's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Gendai Agency's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%. Overall, Gendai Agency has a GF Score™ of 68/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Gendai Agency's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to APP and OMC?
Gendai Agency's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.00% can be compared against companies in the Media - Diversified industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Media - Diversified company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Media - Diversified industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Gendai Agency's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Gendai Agency stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Gendai Agency (TSE:2411) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is 円443.39, compared to a current price of 円460.00 — trading 3.7% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%. Gendai Agency's overall GF Score™ is 68/100 with 1 warning sign to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Gendai Agency (TSE:2411), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00% as of Jul. 18, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Gendai Agency (TSE:2411) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Gendai Agency stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of 円460.00 is trading 3.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of 円443.39. GuruFocus considers Gendai Agency to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for TSE:2411:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.00%
  • GF Value™: 円443.39 vs. price of 円460.00 (3.7% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 68/100 with 1 warning sign

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSE:2411 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Gendai Agency Business Description

Address 3-20-2 Nishi-Shinjuku, 29th Floor, Tokyo Opera City Building, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, JPN, 163-1429
Gendai Agency Inc is engaged in the planning and production of advertising and promotions. The company produces a range of advertisement activities and various kinds of other vehicles for communicating information to stimulate customer participation at pachinko parlors. Its business activities include outdoor advertising, advertisement tracking, newspaper and magazine advertisements, newspaper flyers, free circulation newspapers, and others.
68GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSE:2411

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

円460.00
Price
円443.39
GF Value