UNIB (University Bancorp) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.06% (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


UNIB University Bancorp Inc UNIB
59 GF Score
Price $21.90
GF Value $17.77
Valuation Modestly Overvalued
! 6 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is University Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

University Bancorp UNIB +1.15% 59 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates UNIB with a GF Score™ of 59/100 and a GF Value™ of $17.77 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, University Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

University Bancorp  (OTCPK:UNIB) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

University Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

UNIB vs OFED, CWBK, MGYR: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, University Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

University Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, University Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where University Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


UNIB
59GF Score
University Bancorp Inc UNIB
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

University Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.40

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.06%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=(Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Money Market Investments) / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% mean?
University Bancorp (UNIB) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is University Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
University Bancorp's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. Overall, University Bancorp has a GF Score™ of 59/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does University Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to OFED and CWBK?
University Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% can be compared against companies in the Banks industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Banks company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Banks industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. University Bancorp's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is University Bancorp stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, University Bancorp (UNIB) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $17.77, compared to a current price of $21.90 — trading 23.2% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. University Bancorp's overall GF Score™ is 59/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For University Bancorp (UNIB), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is University Bancorp (UNIB) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, University Bancorp stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $21.90 is trading 23.2% above its estimated GF Value™ of $17.77. GuruFocus considers University Bancorp to be Modestly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for UNIB:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.06%
  • GF Value™: $17.77 vs. price of $21.90 (23.2% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 59/100 with 6 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the UNIB stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

University Bancorp Business Description

Address 2015 Washtenaw Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI, USA, 48104
University Bancorp Inc is a holding company. It is a full-service community bank that offers all customary banking services, including the acceptance of checking, savings, and time deposits. The bank also makes commercial, real estate, personal, home improvement, automotive, and another installment, credit card, and consumer loans, and provides fee-based services such as foreign currency exchange. The company's customer base is located in the Ann Arbor, Michigan metropolitan statistical area.
59GF Score

Get the complete analysis for UNIB

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$21.90
Price
$17.77
GF Value