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Safety Insurance Group (NAS:SAFT) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %

: 18.32% (As of Sep. 2022)
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Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Safety Insurance Group's forward rate of return for was 18.32%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Safety Insurance Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:

SAFT' s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -15.55   Med: 9.41   Max: 27.75
Current: 17.82

During the past 13 years, Safety Insurance Group's highest Forward Rate of Return was 27.75. The lowest was -15.55. And the median was 9.41.

SAFT's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than
51.78% of 253 companies
in the Insurance industry
Industry Median: 18.22 vs SAFT: 17.82

Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past seven years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.


Safety Insurance Group (NAS:SAFT) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data

The historical data trend for Safety Insurance Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Safety Insurance Group Annual Data
Trend Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - 27.14

Safety Insurance Group Quarterly Data
Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 27.57 27.14 25.21 21.72 18.32

Safety Insurance Group (NAS:SAFT) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Competitive Comparison

For the Insurance - Property & Casualty subindustry, Safety Insurance Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Safety Insurance Group (NAS:SAFT) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Distribution

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, Safety Insurance Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Safety Insurance Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.



Safety Insurance Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation

Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):

If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.

The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).

Safety Insurance Group's Forward Rate of Return of Sep. 2022 is

Forward Rate of Return=Normalized Free Cash Flow/Price+5-Year EBITDA Growth Rate
=6.74190476/81.56+0.1005
=18.32 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Safety Insurance Group  (NAS:SAFT) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation

Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.

For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.


Be Aware

In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.


Safety Insurance Group Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Safety Insurance Group's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Safety Insurance Group (NAS:SAFT) Business Description

Safety Insurance Group logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
20 Custom House Street, Boston, MA, USA, 02110
Safety Insurance Group Inc is a provider of private passenger automobile insurance in Massachusetts. The company also offers property and casualty insurance products, including commercial automobile, homeowners, dwelling fire, umbrella, and business owner policies. It operates in the business segment of Property and casualty insurance operations.
Executives
Farina John Daniel Jr. director 20 CUSTOM HOUSE ST BOSTON MA 02110
Gray Deborah E director 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Hiltpold Glenn officer: VP of Actuarial Services 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Moran Mary Coffey director DANVERS BANCORP, INC. ONE CONANT STREET DANVERS MA 01923
Whitford Christopher Thomas officer: VP, CFO and Secretary 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Srb Corp 10 percent owner 125 HIGH STREET OLIVER STREET TOWER, 9TH FLOOR BOSTON MA 02110
Palisades Safety & Insurance Association 10 percent owner C/O PLYMOUTH ROCK MANAGEMENT CO OF NJ 581 MAIN STREET, 4TH FLOOR WOODBRIDGE NJ 07095
Plymouth Rock Co Inc 10 percent owner 695 ATLANTIC AVENUE BOSTON MA 02111
Meehan Thalia director C/O SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Drago John Patrick officer: VP - Marketing 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Mckeown Ann Marie officer: V.P Insurance Operations 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Varga Stephen Albert officer: VP - MIS 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Narciso Paul J officer: VP - Claims C/O SAFETY INSURANCE 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Murphy George officer: VP - Marketing C/O SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
Berry James officer: VP - Insurance Operations C/O SAFETY INSURANCE 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET BOSTON MA 02110
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