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Safety Insurance Group (Safety Insurance Group) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $27.21 (As of Jun. 17, 2024)


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What is Safety Insurance Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-06-17), Safety Insurance Group's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $27.21.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Safety Insurance Group's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Safety Insurance Group is -178.76%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Safety Insurance Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

SAFT's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked *
in the Insurance industry.
Industry Median: 0.77
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Safety Insurance Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Safety Insurance Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Safety Insurance Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Safety Insurance Group Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
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Safety Insurance Group Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Safety Insurance Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Insurance - Property & Casualty subindustry, Safety Insurance Group's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Safety Insurance Group's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Insurance Industry

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, Safety Insurance Group's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Safety Insurance Group's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Safety Insurance Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.27%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Safety Insurance Group's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 4.40%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $2.358.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Safety Insurance Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=2.358*11.5406
=27.21

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (27.21 - 75.85) / 27.21
= -178.76 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Safety Insurance Group  (NAS:SAFT) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Safety Insurance Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Safety Insurance Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Safety Insurance Group (Safety Insurance Group) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
20 Custom House Street, Boston, MA, USA, 02110
Safety Insurance Group Inc is a provider of private passenger automobile insurance in Massachusetts. The company also offers property and casualty insurance products, including commercial automobiles, homeowners, dwelling fire, umbrella, and business owner policies. It operates in the business segment of Property and casualty insurance operations.
Executives
Glenn Hiltpold officer: VP of Actuarial Services 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Brophy Charles Joseph Iii director 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Dennis J. Langwell director C/O LIBERTY MUTUAL GROUP, 175 BERKELEY STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Srb Corp 10 percent owner 695 ATLANTIC AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02111
Peter J Manning director FLEETBOSTON FINANCIAL CORP, 100 FEDERAL STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Christopher Thomas Whitford officer: VP, CFO and Secretary 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Stephen Albert Varga officer: VP - MIS 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
James Berry officer: VP - Insurance Operations C/O SAFETY INSURANCE, 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Farina John Daniel Jr. director 20 CUSTOM HOUSE ST, BOSTON MA 02110
Deborah E Gray director 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Frederic H Lindeberg director C/O SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC., 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Ann Marie Mckeown officer: V.P Insurance Operations 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Moran Mary Coffey director DANVERS BANCORP, INC., ONE CONANT STREET, DANVERS MA 01923
David E Krupa officer: VP - Property Claims
David D Mckown director