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Guotai Junan Securities Co (HKSE:02611) Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF : 7.09 (As of Jun. 19, 2024)


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What is Guotai Junan Securities Co Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF?

As of today (2024-06-19), Guotai Junan Securities Co's current share price is HK$8.15. Guotai Junan Securities Co's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2024 was HK$1.15. Guotai Junan Securities Co's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF for today is 7.09.

The historical rank and industry rank for Guotai Junan Securities Co's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF or its related term are showing as below:

HKSE:02611' s Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 5.74   Med: 8.77   Max: 17.37
Current: 7.63

During the past years, Guotai Junan Securities Co's highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF was 17.37. The lowest was 5.74. And the median was 8.77.

HKSE:02611's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF is ranked better than
80.58% of 242 companies
in the Capital Markets industry
Industry Median: 18.495 vs HKSE:02611: 7.63

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller. He uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings per share of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted free cash flow per share of a company over the past 10 years.

Guotai Junan Securities Co's adjusted free cash flow per share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2024 was HK$-1.502. Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share for the past 10 years together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share, which is HK$1.15 for the trailing ten years ended in Mar. 2024.

Shiller PE for Stocks: The True Measure of Stock Valuation


Guotai Junan Securities Co Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Guotai Junan Securities Co's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Guotai Junan Securities Co Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Chart

Guotai Junan Securities Co Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 9.50 8.81 9.46 5.74 6.87

Guotai Junan Securities Co Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 6.98 6.10 7.58 6.87 7.46

Competitive Comparison of Guotai Junan Securities Co's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF

For the Capital Markets subindustry, Guotai Junan Securities Co's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Guotai Junan Securities Co's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Distribution in the Capital Markets Industry

For the Capital Markets industry and Financial Services sector, Guotai Junan Securities Co's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Guotai Junan Securities Co's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF falls into.



Guotai Junan Securities Co Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Calculation

Like the Shiller PE Ratio, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF takes the Free Cash Flow per Share from the past 10 years, adjusts it for inflation, and then calculates the average. This average is then used for the P/FCF calculation. Because it considers this 10-year average, it's often referred to as the CAPFCF Ratio.

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF.

Guotai Junan Securities Co's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF for today is calculated as

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF=Share Price/ Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
=8.15/1.15
=7.09

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Guotai Junan Securities Co's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2024 is calculated as:

For example, Guotai Junan Securities Co's adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2024 was:

Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare=Free Cash Flow per Share/CPI of Mar. 2024 (Change)*Current CPI (Mar. 2024)
=-1.502/115.2271*115.2271
=-1.502

Current CPI (Mar. 2024) = 115.2271.

Guotai Junan Securities Co Quarterly Data

Free Cash Flow per Share CPI Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare
201406 -0.760 98.200 -0.892
201409 1.952 98.900 2.274
201412 7.004 99.000 8.152
201503 4.338 99.900 5.004
201506 18.941 99.500 21.935
201509 -6.906 100.500 -7.918
201512 -7.947 100.600 -9.102
201603 -0.097 102.200 -0.109
201606 -1.807 101.400 -2.053
201609 -6.480 102.400 -7.292
201612 -0.560 102.600 -0.629
201703 -3.323 103.200 -3.710
201706 0.113 103.100 0.126
201709 -3.055 104.100 -3.382
201712 -2.581 104.500 -2.846
201803 4.693 105.300 5.135
201806 0.540 104.900 0.593
201809 0.554 106.600 0.599
201812 3.506 106.500 3.793
201903 1.830 107.700 1.958
201906 2.403 107.700 2.571
201909 -1.040 109.800 -1.091
201912 1.042 111.200 1.080
202003 1.785 112.300 1.832
202006 -0.881 110.400 -0.920
202009 -1.579 111.700 -1.629
202012 3.340 111.500 3.452
202103 -1.800 112.662 -1.841
202106 -0.709 111.769 -0.731
202109 2.377 112.215 2.441
202112 1.371 113.108 1.397
202203 2.361 114.335 2.379
202206 1.324 114.558 1.332
202209 0.000 115.339 0.000
202212 2.524 115.116 2.526
202303 -2.514 115.116 -2.516
202306 3.036 114.558 3.054
202309 -3.345 115.339 -3.342
202312 3.268 114.781 3.281
202403 -1.502 115.227 -1.502

Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.


Guotai Junan Securities Co  (HKSE:02611) Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Explanation

Compared with the regular Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow, which works poorly for cyclical businesses, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF smoothed out the fluctuations of free cash flow during business cycles. Therefore it is more accurate in reflecting the valuation of the company.

If a company has consistent business performance, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF should give similar results to regular Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow.


Guotai Junan Securities Co Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Related Terms

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Guotai Junan Securities Co (HKSE:02611) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
No. 768 Nanjing West Road, Guotai Junan Mansion, Jingan District, Shanghai, CHN, 200041
Guotai Junan Securities Co Ltd is engaged in providing brokerage services, corporate finance, asset management services, and loans and financing services. Its segments include wealth management, investment banking, institutional and trading, investment management, international business and other segments. The company derives most of its revenue from the institutional and trading segment which consists of research, institutional brokerage, trading and investment; and equity investment.
Executives
A9 Usd (feeder) L.p. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ward Jacqueline Mary Le Maitre 2301 Trustee
Guille Andrew William 2301 Trustee
Diamond Holding Sarl 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Diamond Acquisitionco Sarl 2101 Beneficial owner
Apax Ix Usd L.p. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Apax Ix Usd Gp L.p. Inc. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Apax Ix Gp Co. Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Apax Guernsey (holdco) Pcc Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Sihchong Kong Investment Holdings Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Shang Hai Ning Quan Zi Chan Guan Li You Xian Gong Si 2102 Investment manager
Shang Hai Guo Ji Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner
Shang Hai Guo You Zi Chan Jing Ying You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner
New China Asset Management Company Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
New China Life Insurance Company Ltd. 2501 Other

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