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Harley-Davidson (MIL:1HOG) Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF : 3.90 (As of Jun. 05, 2025)


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What is Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF?

As of today (2025-06-05), Harley-Davidson's current share price is €21.31. Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2025 was €5.46. Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF for today is 3.90.

The historical rank and industry rank for Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF or its related term are showing as below:

MIL:1HOG' s Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 3.47   Med: 8.04   Max: 25.77
Current: 4.12

During the past years, Harley-Davidson's highest Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF was 25.77. The lowest was 3.47. And the median was 8.04.

MIL:1HOG's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF is ranked better than
93.74% of 495 companies
in the Vehicles & Parts industry
Industry Median: 20.15 vs MIL:1HOG: 4.12

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller. He uses E10 for his Shiller PE Ratio calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings per share of a company over the past 10 years. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF. The Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share is the average of the inflation adjusted free cash flow per share of a company over the past 10 years.

Harley-Davidson's adjusted free cash flow per share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2025 was €0.827. Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share for the past 10 years together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share, which is €5.46 for the trailing ten years ended in Mar. 2025.

Shiller PE for Stocks: The True Measure of Stock Valuation


Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Chart

Harley-Davidson Annual Data
Trend Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24
Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 7.81 7.20 7.56 6.56 5.13

Harley-Davidson Quarterly Data
Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25
Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 7.74 5.77 6.59 5.13 4.24

Competitive Comparison of Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF

For the Recreational Vehicles subindustry, Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Distribution in the Vehicles & Parts Industry

For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF falls into.


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Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Calculation

Like the Shiller PE Ratio, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF takes the Free Cash Flow per Share from the past 10 years, adjusts it for inflation, and then calculates the average. This average is then used for the P/FCF calculation. Because it considers this 10-year average, it's often referred to as the CAPFCF Ratio.

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The similar calculation is applied by GuruFocus to calculate the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF.

Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF for today is calculated as

Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF=Share Price/ Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share
=21.31/5.46
=3.90

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share for the quarter that ended in Mar. 2025 is calculated as:

For example, Harley-Davidson's adjusted Free Cash Flow per Share data for the three months ended in Mar. 2025 was:

Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare=Free Cash Flow per Share/CPI of Mar. 2025 (Change)*Current CPI (Mar. 2025)
=0.827/134.9266*134.9266
=0.827

Current CPI (Mar. 2025) = 134.9266.

Harley-Davidson Quarterly Data

Free Cash Flow per Share CPI Adj_FreeCashFlowPerShare
201506 1.675 100.684 2.245
201509 1.538 100.392 2.067
201512 -0.202 99.792 -0.273
201603 0.010 100.470 0.013
201606 1.701 101.688 2.257
201609 2.069 101.861 2.741
201612 0.818 101.863 1.084
201703 0.718 102.862 0.942
201706 2.139 103.349 2.793
201709 1.366 104.136 1.770
201712 -0.182 104.011 -0.236
201803 0.782 105.290 1.002
201806 2.577 106.317 3.270
201809 1.728 106.507 2.189
201812 -0.056 105.998 -0.071
201903 -0.014 107.251 -0.018
201906 2.307 108.070 2.880
201909 1.819 108.329 2.266
201912 -0.236 108.420 -0.294
202003 -0.244 108.902 -0.302
202006 3.389 108.767 4.204
202009 2.756 109.815 3.386
202012 0.022 109.897 0.027
202103 0.783 111.754 0.945
202106 2.477 114.631 2.916
202109 1.410 115.734 1.644
202112 -0.049 117.630 -0.056
202203 0.657 121.301 0.731
202206 0.498 125.017 0.537
202209 2.064 125.227 2.224
202212 -0.590 125.222 -0.636
202303 0.010 127.348 0.011
202306 2.041 128.729 2.139
202309 1.583 129.860 1.645
202312 -0.132 129.419 -0.138
202403 0.387 131.776 0.396
202406 2.994 132.554 3.048
202409 2.067 133.029 2.096
202412 0.578 133.157 0.586
202503 0.827 134.927 0.827

Add all the adjusted free cash flow per share together and divide 10 will get our Cyclically Adjusted FCF per Share.

Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.


Harley-Davidson  (MIL:1HOG) Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Explanation

Compared with the regular Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow, which works poorly for cyclical businesses, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF smoothed out the fluctuations of free cash flow during business cycles. Therefore it is more accurate in reflecting the valuation of the company.

If a company has consistent business performance, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF should give similar results to regular Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow.


Harley-Davidson Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Harley-Davidson's Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Harley-Davidson Business Description

Address
3700 West Juneau Avenue, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53208
Harley-Davidson is a leading global manufacturer of heavyweight motorcycles across the custom, cruising, and touring segments, as well as related merchandise, parts, and accessories. In recent years, the firm has expanded into the adventure touring market with its Pan America model and into electric with the LiveWire brand. Its captive finance arm, Harley-Davidson Financial Services, provides wholesale financing to dealers and retail financing and insurance brokerage services to customers. Harley captured around 37% of the heavyweight domestic market in 2024.

Harley-Davidson Headlines

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