GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Progressive Corp (NYSE:PGR) » Definitions » Earnings Power Value (EPV)

Progressive (Progressive) Earnings Power Value (EPV) : $-0.96 (As of Mar24)


View and export this data going back to 1987. Start your Free Trial

What is Progressive Earnings Power Value (EPV)?

As of Mar24, Progressive's earnings power value is $-0.96. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is N/A.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Progressive Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Progressive's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Progressive Earnings Power Value (EPV) Chart

Progressive Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 49.53 59.30 65.03 69.92 90.49

Progressive Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 75.66 79.23 83.93 90.49 -0.96

Competitive Comparison of Progressive's Earnings Power Value (EPV)

For the Insurance - Property & Casualty subindustry, Progressive's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Progressive's Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution in the Insurance Industry

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, Progressive's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Progressive's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Progressive Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Progressive's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 49,785
DDA 322
Operating Margin % 0.00
SGA * 25% 0
Tax Rate % 19.19
Maintenance Capex 233
Cash and Cash Equivalents 8,566
Short-Term Debt 0
Long-Term Debt 6,890
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 587

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 0.00%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $49,785 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 0.00%, Average Adjusted SGA = 0,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 49,785 * 0.00% +0 = $ Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 19.19%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $ Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = * ( 1 - 19.19% ) = $0 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 322 * 0.5 * 19.19% = $30.9168898 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 0 + 30.9168898 = $30.9168898 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Progressive's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $233 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Progressive's current cash and cash equivalent = $8,566 Mil.
Progressive's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 6,890 + 0 = $6889.7 Mil.
Progressive's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 587 Mil.

Progressive's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Mar24 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 30.9168898 - 233)/ 9%+8,566-6889.7 )/587
=-0.96

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( -0.95997711183003-208.28 )/-0.95997711183003
= N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Progressive  (NYSE:PGR) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Progressive Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Progressive's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Progressive (Progressive) Business Description

Address
6300 Wilson Mills Road, Mayfield Village, OH, USA, 44143
Progressive underwrites private and commercial auto insurance and specialty lines; it has about 18 million personal auto policies in force and is one of the largest auto insurers in the United States. Progressive markets its policies through independent insurance agencies in the U.S. and Canada and directly via the internet and telephone. Its premiums are split roughly equally between the agent and the direct channel. The company also offers commercial auto policies and entered homeowners insurance through an acquisition in 2015.
Executives
Susan Patricia Griffith officer: Chief Human Resource, Officer 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD, MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Andrew J Quigg officer: Chief Strategy Officer C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION, 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD, MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Lori A Niederst officer: CRM President C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION, 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD, MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Daniel P Mascaro officer: Vice Pres, Secretary and CLO C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION, 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD, MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Stuart B Burgdoerfer director 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD, MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Jeffrey D Kelly director
John P Sauerland officer: Direct Group, President PROGRESSIVE, 7580 NORTHCLIFF AVE. -- SUITE 1000, BROOKLYN OH 44144
Barbara R Snyder director 127 PUBLIC SQUARE, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Steven Broz officer: Chief Information Officer C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION, 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD, MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Danelle Marie Barrett director 50 ENTERPRISE CENTER, KVH INDUSTRIES, INC., MIDDLETOWN RI 02842
Philip Bleser director 8760 CLAY ROAD SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77494
Devin C Johnson director 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD, MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
John Jo Murphy officer: Claims President C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION, 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD, MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Patrick K Callahan officer: Personal Lines President C/O THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION, 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD, MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143
Karen Bailo officer: Commercial Lines President 6300 WILSON MILLS ROAD, MAYFIELD VILLAGE OH 44143

Progressive (Progressive) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Q2 2022 Progressive Corp Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024

Q2 2020 Progressive Corp Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024

Progressive Announces Investor Relations Call

By Marketwired 10-25-2023

Q3 2020 Progressive Corp Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024

Progressive Reports September 2023 Results

By Marketwired 10-13-2023

Q3 2019 Progressive Corp Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024

Q2 2021 Progressive Corp Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024

Q1 2020 Progressive Corp Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024

Q3 2021 Progressive Corp Earnings Call Transcript

By GuruFocus Research 01-23-2024