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Burke & Herbert Financial Services (Burke & Herbert Financial Services) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $77.12 (As of May. 13, 2024)


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What is Burke & Herbert Financial Services Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-05-13), Burke & Herbert Financial Services's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $77.12.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Burke & Herbert Financial Services's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Burke & Herbert Financial Services is 36.66%.

The industry rank for Burke & Herbert Financial Services's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

BHRB's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Banks industry.
Industry Median: 0.44
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Burke & Herbert Financial Services Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Burke & Herbert Financial Services's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Burke & Herbert Financial Services Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Burke & Herbert Financial Services Annual Data
Trend Dec02 Dec03 Dec04 Dec05 Dec06 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
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Burke & Herbert Financial Services Quarterly Data
Dec05 Mar06 Jun06 Sep06 Dec06 Mar07 Jun07 Sep07 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Burke & Herbert Financial Services's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Burke & Herbert Financial Services's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Burke & Herbert Financial Services's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Burke & Herbert Financial Services's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Burke & Herbert Financial Services's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



Burke & Herbert Financial Services Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.49%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 13.70%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Burke & Herbert Financial Services's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 13.70%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 13.70%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $3.765.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Burke & Herbert Financial Services's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.137)/(1+0.11) = 1.0243243243243
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=3.765*20.4843
=77.12

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(77.12-48.85)/77.12
=36.66 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Burke & Herbert Financial Services  (NAS:BHRB) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Burke & Herbert Financial Services Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Burke & Herbert Financial Services's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Burke & Herbert Financial Services (Burke & Herbert Financial Services) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
100 S Fairfax Street, Alexandria, VA, USA, 22314
Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp is the bank holding company. The bank offers a full range of business and personal financial solutions designed to meet customers' banking, borrowing, and investment needs and has over 20 branches throughout the Northern Virginia region and commercial loan offices in Fredericksburg, Loudoun County, and Richmond, Virginia, and in Bethesda, Maryland.
Executives
Barnwell Julian Forrest Jr. director C/O BURKE & HERBERT FINANCIAL SERVICES, 100 S. FAIRFAX STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Shawn Patrick Mclaughlin director C/O BURKE & HERBERT FINANCIAL SERVICES, 100 S. FAIRFAX STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
David P Boyle director, officer: Chair, President, & CEO 5151 COLUMBUS RD, WOOSTER OH 44691
Jose David Riojas director C/O BURKE & HERBERT FINANCIAL SERVICES, 100 S. FAIRFAX STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Mark Guthrie Anderson director C/O BURKE & HERBERT FINANCIAL SERVICES, 100 S. FAIRFAX STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Nicholas Iii Carosi director 22900 SHAW ROAD, SUITE 111, STERLING VA 20166
Shannon Barrow Rowan officer: EVP, Wealth Services C/O BURKE & HERBERT FINANCIAL SERVICES, 100 S. FAIRFAX STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Hinson Samuel Laing Iii director C/O BURKE & HERBERT FINANCIAL SERVICES, 100 S. FAIRFAX STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Smith Kendrick Cook officer: EVP, Operations C/O BURKE & HERBERT FINANCIAL SERVICES, 100 S. FAIRFAX STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Katherine Diane Bonnafe director C/O BURKE & HERBERT FINANCIAL SERVICES, 100 S. FAIRFAX STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Edmund Hunt Burke director C/O BURKE & HERBERT FINANCIAL SERVICES, 100 S. FAIRFAX STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Michael David Lubeley director C/O BURKE & HERBERT FINANCIAL SERVICES, 100 S. FAIRFAX STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Jennifer Palmer Schmidt officer: EVP, Enterprise Risk C/O BURKE & HERBERT FINANCIAL SERVICES, 100 S. FAIRFAX STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Joseph Frye Collum officer: Executive Vice President C/O BURKE & HERBERT FINANCIAL SERVICES, 100 S. FAIRFAX STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Emily Stavroula Debeniotis officer: EVP, Human Resources C/O BURKE & HERBERT FINANCIAL SERVICES, 100 S. FAIRFAX STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314