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NovoCure (NovoCure) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $-13.06 (As of Jul. 20, 2024)


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What is NovoCure Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-07-20), NovoCure's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-13.06.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

NovoCure's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for NovoCure is N/A.

The industry rank for NovoCure's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

NVCR's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Medical Devices & Instruments industry.
Industry Median: 1.98
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

NovoCure Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for NovoCure's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

NovoCure Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

NovoCure Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
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NovoCure Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of NovoCure's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Medical Devices subindustry, NovoCure's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


NovoCure's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Medical Devices & Instruments Industry

For the Medical Devices & Instruments industry and Healthcare sector, NovoCure's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where NovoCure's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



NovoCure Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.24%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> NovoCure's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-1.132.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

NovoCure's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-1.132*11.5406
=-13.06

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(-13.06-18.40)/-13.06
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


NovoCure  (NAS:NVCR) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


NovoCure Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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NovoCure (NovoCure) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
Grenville Street, No. 4 The Forum, Second Floor, St. Helier, JEY, JE2 4UF
NovoCure Ltd serves in the healthcare sector of the United States. Its business involves the development, manufacture and commercialization of Tumor Treating Fields (TTFields) devices, including Optune and Optune Lua, for the treatment of solid tumor cancers. Its pipeline consists of Ovarian Cancer, Pancreatic Cancer, Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer, and Brain Metastasis. Products are comprised of two main components: electric field generator and arrays and related accessories. NovoCure derives its major revenues in the United States.
Executives
Pritesh Shah officer: Chief Commercial Officer C/O NOVOCURE INC., 20 VALLEY STREAM PARKWAY, SUITE 300, MALVERN PA 19355
Michal Nath Puri officer: Chief Human Resources Officer BUSINESS VILLAGE D4, PARK 6/PLATZ10, ROOT V8 6039
Wilhelmus Cm Groenhuysen officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O NAVTEQ CORPORATION, 222 MERCHANDISE MART STE 900, CHICAGO IL 60654
Ashley Cordova officer: Chief Financial Officer 20 VALLEY STREAM PARKWAY,, SUITE 300, MALVERN PA 19355
Arye Barak Ben officer: General Counsel TOPAZ BUILDING, 4TH FLOOR, MATAM CENTER, PO BOX 15022, SH'AR HACARMEL, HAIFA L3 31905
Timothy J Scannell director 2825 AIRVIEW BOULEVARD, KALAMAZOO MI 49002
Kristin Stafford director 1550 LIBERTY RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 115, WAYNE PA 19087
Frank X Leonard officer: President, CNS Cancers US 20 VALLEY STREAM PARKWAY,, SUITE 300, MALVERN PA 19355
William Patrick Burke officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 195 COMMERCE WAY, PORTSMOUTH NH 03801
Uri Weinberg officer: Chief Innovation Officer NOVOCURE INC., 20 VALLEY STREAM PARKWAY, SUITE 300, MALVERN PA 19355
Allyson J Ocean director 1550 LIBERTY RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 115, WAYNE PA 19087
Asaf Danziger director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 5 NACHUM CHAT ST., TIRAT HACARMEL L3 5112302
Ely Benaim officer: Chief Medical Officer C/O REXAHN PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 15245 SHADY GROVE ROAD, SUITE 455, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
William F Doyle director, 10 percent owner
Jeryl L Hilleman director C/O INTERSECT ENT, INC., 1555 ADAMS DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025