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NovoCure (NovoCure) Predictability Rank

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What is NovoCure Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NovoCure Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

NovoCure Predictability Rank Related Terms

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NovoCure (NovoCure) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Grenville Street, No. 4 The Forum, Second Floor, St. Helier, JEY, JE2 4UF
NovoCure Ltd serves in the healthcare sector of the United States. Its business involves the development, manufacture and commercialization of Tumor Treating Fields (TTFields) devices, including Optune and Optune Lua, for the treatment of solid tumor cancers. Its pipeline consists of Ovarian Cancer, Pancreatic Cancer, Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer, and Brain Metastasis. Products are comprised of two main components: electric field generator and arrays and related accessories. NovoCure derives its major revenues in the United States.
Pritesh Shah officer: Chief Commercial Officer C/O NOVOCURE INC., 20 VALLEY STREAM PARKWAY, SUITE 300, MALVERN PA 19355
Michal Nath Puri officer: Chief Human Resources Officer BUSINESS VILLAGE D4, PARK 6/PLATZ10, ROOT V8 6039
Wilhelmus Cm Groenhuysen officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O NAVTEQ CORPORATION, 222 MERCHANDISE MART STE 900, CHICAGO IL 60654
Ashley Cordova officer: Chief Financial Officer 20 VALLEY STREAM PARKWAY,, SUITE 300, MALVERN PA 19355
Arye Barak Ben officer: General Counsel TOPAZ BUILDING, 4TH FLOOR, MATAM CENTER, PO BOX 15022, SH'AR HACARMEL, HAIFA L3 31905
Timothy J Scannell director 2825 AIRVIEW BOULEVARD, KALAMAZOO MI 49002
Kristin Stafford director 1550 LIBERTY RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 115, WAYNE PA 19087
Frank X Leonard officer: President, CNS Cancers US 20 VALLEY STREAM PARKWAY,, SUITE 300, MALVERN PA 19355
William Patrick Burke officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 195 COMMERCE WAY, PORTSMOUTH NH 03801
Uri Weinberg officer: Chief Innovation Officer NOVOCURE INC., 20 VALLEY STREAM PARKWAY, SUITE 300, MALVERN PA 19355
Allyson J Ocean director 1550 LIBERTY RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 115, WAYNE PA 19087
Asaf Danziger director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 5 NACHUM CHAT ST., TIRAT HACARMEL L3 5112302
Ely Benaim officer: Chief Medical Officer C/O REXAHN PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 15245 SHADY GROVE ROAD, SUITE 455, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
William F Doyle director, 10 percent owner
Jeryl L Hilleman director C/O INTERSECT ENT, INC., 1555 ADAMS DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025