NVCR (NovoCure) Predictability Rank

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What is NovoCure Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NovoCure Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

NovoCure Predictability Rank Related Terms

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NovoCure Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » NovoCure Ltd (NAS:NVCR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

038:Germany

Address

Grenville Street, No. 4 The Forum, Second Floor, St. Helier, JEY, JE2 4UF

Website

https://www.novocure.com

NovoCure Ltd is an oncology company with a propreitary platform technology in United States. Its business involves the development, manufacture and commercialization of Tumor Treating Fields (TTFields) devices, including Optune Gio and Optune Lua, for the treatment of solid tumor cancers. Its pipeline consists of Trident, Lunar-2, Panova-3, Metis and other products and technologies for the treatment of Glioblastoma, Non-smell cell lung cancer and Pancreatic cancer. Geographically, the company derives majority of its revenue from the United States and rest from Germany, Japan and other markets.

Executives

Frank X Leonard	officer: President, CNS Cancers US	20 VALLEY STREAM PARKWAY,, SUITE 300, MALVERN PA 19355
Ashley Cordova	officer: Chief Financial Officer	20 VALLEY STREAM PARKWAY,, SUITE 300, MALVERN PA 19355
Uri Weinberg	officer: Chief Innovation Officer	NOVOCURE INC., 20 VALLEY STREAM PARKWAY, SUITE 300, MALVERN PA 19355
Michal Nath Puri	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	BUSINESS VILLAGE D4, PARK 6/PLATZ10, ROOT V8 6039
W Anthony Vernon	director	C/O AXOVANT SCIENCES, INC., 320 WEST 37TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10018
Gabriel Leung	director	C/O PERNIX THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC., 10 NORTH PARK PLACE, SUITE 201, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
Timothy J Scannell	director	2825 AIRVIEW BOULEVARD, KALAMAZOO MI 49002
Wilhelmus Cm Groenhuysen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O NAVTEQ CORPORATION, 222 MERCHANDISE MART STE 900, CHICAGO IL 60654
Pritesh Shah	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O NOVOCURE INC., 20 VALLEY STREAM PARKWAY, SUITE 300, MALVERN PA 19355
Arye Barak Ben	officer: General Counsel	TOPAZ BUILDING, 4TH FLOOR, MATAM CENTER, PO BOX 15022, SH'AR HACARMEL, HAIFA L3 31905
Kristin Stafford	director	1550 LIBERTY RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 115, WAYNE PA 19087
William Patrick Burke	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	195 COMMERCE WAY, PORTSMOUTH NH 03801
Allyson J Ocean	director	1550 LIBERTY RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 115, WAYNE PA 19087
Asaf Danziger	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	5 NACHUM CHAT ST., TIRAT HACARMEL L3 5112302
Ely Benaim	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O REXAHN PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 15245 SHADY GROVE ROAD, SUITE 455, ROCKVILLE MD 20850