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Universal Music Group NV (CHIX:UMGA) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : €8.81 (As of Jun. 22, 2025)


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What is Universal Music Group NV Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2025-06-22), Universal Music Group NV's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is €8.81. The stock price of Universal Music Group NV is €26.515. Therefore, Universal Music Group NV's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 3.0.

The historical rank and industry rank for Universal Music Group NV's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

CHIX:UMGa' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 2.78   Med: 4.09   Max: 5.4
Current: 3.01

During the past 8 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Universal Music Group NV was 5.40. The lowest was 2.78. And the median was 4.09.

CHIX:UMGa's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than
85.27% of 584 companies
in the Media - Diversified industry
Industry Median: 0.89 vs CHIX:UMGa: 3.01

Universal Music Group NV Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for Universal Music Group NV's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Universal Music Group NV Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

Universal Music Group NV Annual Data
Trend Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial - - - 4.79 8.71

Universal Music Group NV Semi-Annual Data
Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Jun20 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23 Jun24 Dec24
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - 4.79 - 8.71

Competitive Comparison of Universal Music Group NV's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Entertainment subindustry, Universal Music Group NV's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Universal Music Group NV's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Media - Diversified Industry

For the Media - Diversified industry and Communication Services sector, Universal Music Group NV's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Universal Music Group NV's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.


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Universal Music Group NV Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Universal Music Group NV's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = €863.00.

Universal Music Group NV's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec24)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(14.862653310476*863+4526*0.8)/1852.000
=8.88

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Universal Music Group NV  (CHIX:UMGa) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

Universal Music Group NV's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=26.515/8.8808152305295
=2.99

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Universal Music Group NV Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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Universal Music Group NV Business Description

Address
Gravelandseweg 80, Hilversum, NH, NLD, 1217 EW
Universal Music is the largest of the three major record companies. Recorded music accounts for most of the firm's revenue, with the segment housing more than a dozen record labels, including notable names like Interscope, Capital Music, Motown Records, and Def Jam. Some of the most successful current artists signed to record deals with Universal include Taylor Swift, Drake, The Weeknd, and Morgan Wallen. Most of Universal's remaining revenue comes from its publishing segment, which generates revenue for songwriters and composers, including some of Universal's recording artists as well as songwriters and composers who do not record music themselves or are attached to other labels. Universal's publishing group has nearly 4.5 million owned or administered titles in its catalog.

Universal Music Group NV Headlines

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