Assurant (NYSE:AIZ) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $153.55 (As of Today)

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As of today (2023-03-20), Assurant's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $153.55.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Assurant's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Assurant is 27.70%.

The industry rank for Assurant's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

Assurant Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Assurant's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Assurant Annual Data

Trend

Dec13

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

193.15

Assurant Quarterly Data
	Mar18	Jun18	Sep18	Dec18	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)																193.15	136.64	-84.11	117.45	-

Assurant Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 11.50%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 11.50% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 11.50%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $7.955.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Assurant's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.115)/(1+0.1) = 1.0136363636364
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

7.955

19.3021

153.55

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(153.55	-	111.02)	/	153.55
	=	27.70 %

Assurant (NYSE:AIZ) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Assurant Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Assurant's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Assurant (NYSE:AIZ) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Assurant Inc (NYSE:AIZ) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AIZP.PFD:USA ZAS:Germany

Address

55 Broadway, Suite 2901, New York, NY, USA, 10006

Website

https://www.assurant.com

Assurant Inc offers a range of property-casualty, health, employee benefit, and warranty insurance to a client base made up of individuals and institutions. Its segments are Global Housing, Global Lifestyle, Corporate and Other. Global Housing segment, the key revenue-generating segment, provides lender-placed homeowners insurance, lender-placed manufactured housing insurance and lender-placed flood insurance; renters insurance and related products; and voluntary manufactured housing insurance, voluntary homeowners insurance and other specialty products. Global Lifestyle provides mobile device solutions and extended service products and related services for mobile devices, consumer electronics and appliances; vehicle protection; and credit protection and other insurance products.

Executives

Sari Beth Granat	director	C/O MARKIT LTD, 4TH FL, ROPEMAKER PLACE, 25 ROPEMAKER STREET, LONDON X0 EC2Y 9LY
Keith Meier	officer: EVP, COO	C/O ASSURANT, INC., 55 BROADWAY, SUITE 2901, NEW YORK NY 10006
Dimitry Dirienzo	officer: SVP, CAO, Controller	C/O ASSURANT, INC., 28 LIBERTY ST. 41 F., NEW YORK NY 10005
Jay Rosenblum	officer: EVP and CLO	C/O ASSURANT, INC., 28 LIBERTY ST, 41ST FL., NEW YORK NY 10005
Francesca Luthi	officer: EVP, CAO	1180 NORTH TOWN CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 100, LAS VEGAS NV 89144
Carter J Braxton Ii	director	C/O T-MOBILE US, INC., 12920 SE 38TH STREET, BELLEVUE WA 98006
Paget Leonard Alves	director	SPRINT NEXTEL, 6200 SPRINT PARKWAY KSOPHF0410 - 4A403, OVERLAND PARK KS 66251
Ognjen Redzic	director	C/O ASSURANT, INC., 28 LIBERTY STREET, 41ST FL., NEW YORK NY 10005
Tammy L. Schultz	officer: EVP	C/O ASSURANT, INC.,28 LIBERTY STREET, 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
Robert Lonergan	officer: EVP, other: Chief Strategy Officer	C/O ASSURANT, INC.,28 LIBERTY STREET, 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
Michael P. Campbell	officer: EVP	C/O ASSURANT, INC.,28 LIBERTY STREET, 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
Keith Demmings	officer: EVP	C/O ASSURANT, INC.,28 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10005
Peter Mcgoohan	director	301 COMMERCE STREET,SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Eric W Leathers	director	54 THOMPSON ST, NEW YORK NY 10012
Tpg Advisors Vi-aiv, Inc.	10 percent owner	301 COMMERCE STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102