Paychex (NAS:PAYX) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

: $66.44 (As of Today)

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As of today (2023-06-07), Paychex's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $66.44.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Paychex's Predictability Rank is 5-Stars.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Paychex is -67.69%.

The industry rank for Paychex's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

PAYX's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is ranked worse than
72.52% of 131 companies
in the Business Services industry
Industry Median: 0.95 vs PAYX: 1.68

Paychex Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Paychex's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Paychex Annual Data

Trend

May13

May14

May15

May16

May17

May18

May19

May20

May21

May22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

45.63

51.66

79.04

59.92

66.35

Paychex Quarterly Data
	May18	Aug18	Nov18	Feb19	May19	Aug19	Nov19	Feb20	May20	Aug20	Nov20	Feb21	May21	Aug21	Nov21	Feb22	May22	Aug22	Nov22	Feb23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)																74.70	66.35	59.88	66.59	66.44

Paychex Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 8.80%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average free cash flow growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 8.80% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 8.80%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $4.130.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Paychex's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.088)/(1+0.1) = 0.98909090909091
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

4.130

16.0874

66.44

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(66.44	-	111.41)	/	66.44
	=	-67.69 %

Paychex (NAS:PAYX) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Paychex Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Paychex's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Paychex (NAS:PAYX) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Paychex Inc (NAS:PAYX) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PAYX:Mexico PCX:Germany P1AY34:Brazil

Address

911 Panorama Trail South, Rochester, NY, USA, 14625-2396

Website

https://www.paychex.com

Paychex is a leading provider of payroll, human capital management, and insurance solutions servicing small and midsize clients primarily in the United States. The company, established in 1979, services over 730,000 clients and pays over 1 in 12 U.S. private-sector workers. Alongside its traditional payroll services, Paychex offers HCM solutions such as benefits administration and time and attendance software, as well as human resources outsourcing and insurance agency services.

Executives

Kevin A Price	director	911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Karen E. Saunders-mcclendon	officer: VP, Chief Human Resources Offi	911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Robert L. Schrader	officer: VP/Controller	911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Kara Wilson	director	C/O SUCCESSFACTORS, INC., 1500 FASHION ISLAND BLVD., SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94404
Tom Bonadio	director	1021 HOWARD AVE, SAN CARLOS CA 94070
John B Gibson	officer: Sr. VP, Service	CONVERGYS CORPORATION, 201 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Mark Anthony Bottini	officer: Sr. VP of Sales	911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Kevin N Hill	officer: Vice President	50 WREN FIELD LN, PITTSFORD NY 114534
Michael E Gioja	officer: Sr. Vice President	911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Rebecca F Bernson	officer: Sr. Vice President, Sales	911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Efrain Rivera	officer: Sr. Vice President, CFO	911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Laurie L. Zaucha	officer: Vice President	400 WILLOWBROOK OFFICE PARK, FAIRPORT NY 14450
Joseph Doody	director	CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS INC, 25 GREENS HILL LANE PO BOX 866, RUTLAND VT 05701
Delbert M Humenik	officer: Sr. Vice President	911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625
Jennifer R. Vossler	officer: VP/Controller	911 PANORAMA TRAIL SOUTH, ROCHESTER NY 14625