SELECT id, `name`, primary_key, `key`, treemapgroup, name_cn, zacks_table_name, compare_key, compare_display_name from gurufocu_main.financial_definition where termpagedisplay=1 and `key` = 'iv_dcf_dividend' Apple (AAPL) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
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Apple (NAS:AAPL) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

: $83.11 (As of Today)
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As of today (2023-12-04), Apple's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $83.11.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Apple's Predictability Rank is 5-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Apple is -125.91%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Apple's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

AAPL' s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.35   Med: 1.07   Max: 2.3
Current: 2.3

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Apple was 2.30. The lowest was 0.35. And the median was 1.07.

AAPL's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is ranked worse than
82.78% of 273 companies
in the Hardware industry
Industry Median: 1.02 vs AAPL: 2.30

Apple Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Apple's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Apple Annual Data
Trend Sep14 Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20 Sep21 Sep22 Sep23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 58.52 69.62 102.06 150.11 83.11

Apple Quarterly Data
Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 150.11 144.71 144.71 146.18 83.11

Competitive Comparison

For the Consumer Electronics subindustry, Apple's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Apple Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution

For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, Apple's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Apple's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.



Apple Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.29%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 9.10%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Apple's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 9.10%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 9.10%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $5.508.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Apple's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.091)/(1+0.11) = 0.98288288288288
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)=Dividends per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Dividends per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=5.508*15.0894
=83.11

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) = (Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)-Current Price) /Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
= (83.11 - 187.75) / 83.11
= -125.91 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Apple  (NAS:AAPL) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Apple Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Apple's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Apple (NAS:AAPL) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Apple Inc (NAS:AAPL) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
Address
One Apple Park Way, Cupertino, CA, USA, 95014
Apple designs a wide variety of consumer electronic devices, including smartphones (iPhone), tablets (iPad), PCs (Mac), smartwatches (Apple Watch), and AirPods, among others. In addition, Apple offers its customers a variety of services such as Apple Music, iCloud, Apple Care, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple Fitness, Apple Card, and Apple Pay, among others. Apple's products include internally developed software and semiconductors, and the firm is well known for its integration of hardware, software, semiconductors, and services. Apple's products are distributed online as well as through company-owned stores and third-party retailers.
Executives
Alex Gorsky director JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON & JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Monica C Lozano director
Deirdre O'brien officer: Senior Vice President ONE APPLE PARK WAY, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Robert A Iger director C/O WALT DISNEY CO, 500 S BUENA VISTA STREET, BURBANK CA 91521-1062
Andrea Jung director C/O APPLE INC, ONE APPLE PARK WAY, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Susan Wagner director C/O BLACKROCK, INC., 40 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
James A Bell director C/O THE DOW CHEMICAL COMPANY, 2211 H.H. DOW WAY, MIDLAND MI 48674
Albert Jr Gore director C/O APPLE INC, 1 INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Ronald D Sugar director 10877 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1650, LOS ANGELES CA 900274
Katherine L. Adams officer: SVP, General Counsel APPLE INC., 1 INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Luca Maestri officer: Senior Vice President, CFO 1 INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Angela J Ahrendts officer: Senior Vice President 1 INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Jeffrey E Williams officer: COO ONE INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Philip W Schiller officer: Senior Vice President C/O APPLE INC, ONE INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Eduardo H Cue officer: Senior Vice President 1 INFINITE LOOP, CUPERTINO CA 95014